IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lus/zwipol/v65y2016i3p195-238n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung – Projektionen und Determinanten

Author

Listed:
  • Gasche Martin

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA), Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 MünchenGermany)

  • Rausch Johannes

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA), Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 MünchenGermany, Tel.: (089) 38602–350)

Abstract

We split the development of the contribution rate of the German health insurance (GKV) and social care insurance (SPV) analytically into a demographic effect, an expenditure effect and an income effect. It appears that in the medium term the demographic effect represents a considerable factor for both insurances. However, due to the steeper expenditures' profiles the effect of the demographic development is much larger in the SPV compared to the GKV. Actually, the contribution rate of the SPV is mainly driven by the demographic development, while the GKV contribution rate is mainly determined by the expenditure effect. Due to its characteristics of a partially comprehensive insurance with given flat service charges the expenditure effect plays only a minor role in the SPV. A higher fertility rate leads to a temporary larger increase of the GKV contribution rate due to higher expenditures for children. However, until 2060 this effect will be compensated by the increasing number of contributors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gasche Martin & Rausch Johannes, 2016. "Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung – Projektionen und Determinanten," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 195-238, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:lus:zwipol:v:65:y:2016:i:3:p:195-238:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2016-0016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/zfwp-2016-0016
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/zfwp-2016-0016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rausch, Johannes & Gasche, Martin, 2014. "Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung - Projektionen und Determinanten," MEA discussion paper series 201404, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. repec:mea:meawpa:14281 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fetzer, Stefan, 2005. "Determinanten der zukünftigen Finanzierbarkeit der GKV: Doppelter Alterungsprozess, Medikalisierungs- vs. Kompressionsthese und medizinisch-technischer-Fortschritt," Discussion Papers 130, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    4. Martin Gasche, 2009. "Die sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten im deutschen Sozialversicherungssystem: Eigenschaften, Beitragsleistungen und Leistungsbezug," MEA discussion paper series 09189, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    5. Breyer, Friedrich & Franz, Wolfgang & Homburg, Stefan & Schnabel, Reinhold & Wille, Eberhard, 2004. "Reform der sozialen Sicherung: Kurzfassung," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 92399, December.
    6. Florian Buchner & Jürgen Wasem, 2006. "“Steeping” of Health Expenditure Profiles," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 31(4), pages 581-599, October.
    7. Friedrich Breyer & Joan Costa-Font & Stefan Felder, 2010. "Ageing, health, and health care," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 674-690, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neusius, Thomas, 2019. "Strukturelle Einnahmeschwäche? GKV-Finanzierung im Spannungsfeld von demographischem Wandel und Gesundheitsreformen," wifin Working Paper Series 6/2019, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences, Wiesbaden Institute of Finance and Insurance (wifin).
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Rausch, Johannes, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," MEA discussion paper series 201803, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Arentz, Christine & Moritz, Maik & Eich, Holger & Wild, Frank, 2019. "Die versteckte Verschuldung der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung," WIP-Analysen 3/2019, WIP – Wissenschaftliches Institut der PKV.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2011. "Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels. Expertise im Auftrag der Bundesregierung," Occasional Reports / Expertisen, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, number 75371.
    2. Kallweit Manuel & Kohlmeier Anabell, 2014. "Zusatzbeiträge in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung / Income-independent Surcharges in German Statutory Health Insurance: Weiterentwicklungsoptionen und ihre finanziellen sowie allokativen Effekte ," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 234(4), pages 490-517, August.
    3. Rausch, Johannes & Gasche, Martin, 2014. "Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung - Projektionen und Determinanten," MEA discussion paper series 201404, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Kallweit, Manuel & Kohlmeier, Anabell, 2012. "Zusatzbeiträge in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung: Weiterentwicklungsoptionen und ihre finanziellen sowie allokativen Effekte," Working Papers 06/2012, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    5. Kurt Hornschild & Stephan Raab & Jörg-Peter Weiß, 2005. "Die Medizintechnik am Standort Deutschland: Chancen und Risiken durch technologische Innovationen, Auswirkungen auf und durch das nationale Gesundheitssystem sowie potentielle Wachstumsmärkte im Ausla," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, edition 2, volume 10, number pbk10.
    6. Sesselmeier, Werner & Somaggio, Gabriele & Yollu, Aysel, 2006. "Mögliche Implikationen der gegenwärtigen Arbeitsmarktreformen für die zukünftige Entwicklung der Arbeitslosenversicherung," Arbeitspapiere 126, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    7. Grupp, Helen & König, Hans-Helmut & Konnopka, Alexander, 2016. "Health care utilisation and costs in the general population in Germany," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 159-169.
    8. Berthold, Norbert & von Berchem, Sascha, 2005. "Hartz IV: eine vertane Chance nutzen," Discussion Paper Series 79, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    9. Felder, Stefan & Werblow, Andreas, 2008. "Do the age profiles of health care expenditure really steepen over time? New evidence from Swiss cantons," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/08, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    10. Werding, Martin, 2011. "Demographie und öffentliche Haushalte: Simulationen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der gesamtstaatlichen Finanzpolitik in Deutschland," Working Papers 03/2011, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    11. Titus Galama & Hans van Kippersluis, 2022. "Human Capital Formation: The Importance of Endogenous Longevity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 22-026/V, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Ried Walter, 2007. "Medizinisch-technischer Fortschritt und altersspezifische Gesundheitsausgaben / Medical Progress and Age-specific Expenditure on Health Care," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(5-6), pages 636-659, October.
    13. von Berchem, Sascha & Berthold, Norbert, 2004. "Reform der Arbeitslosenversicherung: Markt, Staat oder beides?," Discussion Paper Series 70, Julius Maximilian University of Würzburg, Chair of Economic Order and Social Policy.
    14. Cockx, Lara & Francken, Nathalie, 2014. "Extending the concept of the resource curse: Natural resources and public spending on health," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 136-149.
    15. Torrini, Irene & Grassetti, Luca & Rizzi, Laura, 2023. "Under-spending, over-spending or substitution among services? Spatial patterns of unexplained shares of health care expenditures," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Who’s Going Broke? Comparing Growth in Healthcare Costs in Ten OECD Countries," Working Papers id:286, eSocialSciences.
    18. Friedrich Breyer & Normann Lorenz, 2021. "The “red herring” after 20 years: ageing and health care expenditures," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(5), pages 661-667, July.
    19. Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Hartz IV – Welfare to Work in Germany," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 3(2), pages 18-25, 07.
    20. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    21. Tim Lohse, 2006. "Zum optimalen Verhältnis von Sozialhilfe und Arbeitslosengeld II [zwei] : Themenschwerpunkt Arbeitslosengeld II [zwei]," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(02), pages 16-19, 04.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Long-term Care Insurance; Public Health Insurance; Financial Development; Aging Population; Simulations; Soziale Pflegeversicherung; Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung; Finanzielle Entwicklung; Bevölkerungsalterung; Simulationsrechnungen; Social Long-term Care Insurance; Public Health Insurance; Financial Development; Aging Population; Simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lus:zwipol:v:65:y:2016:i:3:p:195-238:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.