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Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung – Projektionen und Determinanten

Author

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  • Gasche Martin

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA), Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 MünchenGermany)

  • Rausch Johannes

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA), Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy, Amalienstraße 33, 80799 MünchenGermany, Tel.: (089) 38602–350)

Abstract

We split the development of the contribution rate of the German health insurance (GKV) and social care insurance (SPV) analytically into a demographic effect, an expenditure effect and an income effect. It appears that in the medium term the demographic effect represents a considerable factor for both insurances. However, due to the steeper expenditures' profiles the effect of the demographic development is much larger in the SPV compared to the GKV. Actually, the contribution rate of the SPV is mainly driven by the demographic development, while the GKV contribution rate is mainly determined by the expenditure effect. Due to its characteristics of a partially comprehensive insurance with given flat service charges the expenditure effect plays only a minor role in the SPV. A higher fertility rate leads to a temporary larger increase of the GKV contribution rate due to higher expenditures for children. However, until 2060 this effect will be compensated by the increasing number of contributors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gasche Martin & Rausch Johannes, 2016. "Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung – Projektionen und Determinanten," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 65(3), pages 195-238, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:lus:zwipol:v:65:y:2016:i:3:p:195-238:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/zfwp-2016-0016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rausch, Johannes & Gasche, Martin, 2014. "Beitragssatzentwicklung in der Gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung und der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung - Projektionen und Determinanten," MEA discussion paper series 201404, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. repec:mea:meawpa:14281 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fetzer, Stefan, 2005. "Determinanten der zukünftigen Finanzierbarkeit der GKV: Doppelter Alterungsprozess, Medikalisierungs- vs. Kompressionsthese und medizinisch-technischer-Fortschritt," Discussion Papers 130, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    4. Martin Gasche, 2009. "Die sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten im deutschen Sozialversicherungssystem: Eigenschaften, Beitragsleistungen und Leistungsbezug," MEA discussion paper series 09189, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    5. Breyer, Friedrich & Franz, Wolfgang & Homburg, Stefan & Schnabel, Reinhold & Wille, Eberhard, 2004. "Reform der sozialen Sicherung: Kurzfassung," EconStor Books, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 92399, June.
    6. Florian Buchner & Jürgen Wasem, 2006. "“Steeping” of Health Expenditure Profiles," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 31(4), pages 581-599, October.
    7. Friedrich Breyer & Joan Costa-Font & Stefan Felder, 2010. "Ageing, health, and health care," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 674-690, Winter.
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    Cited by:

    1. Neusius, Thomas, 2019. "Strukturelle Einnahmeschwäche? GKV-Finanzierung im Spannungsfeld von demographischem Wandel und Gesundheitsreformen," wifin Working Paper Series 6/2019, RheinMain University of Applied Sciences, Wiesbaden Institute of Finance and Insurance (wifin).
    2. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Rausch, Johannes, 2018. "Die Kosten der doppelten Haltelinie," MEA discussion paper series 201803, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    3. Arentz, Christine & Moritz, Maik & Eich, Holger & Wild, Frank, 2019. "Die versteckte Verschuldung der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung," WIP-Analysen 3/2019, WIP – Wissenschaftliches Institut der PKV.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Long-term Care Insurance; Public Health Insurance; Financial Development; Aging Population; Simulations; Soziale Pflegeversicherung; Gesetzliche Krankenversicherung; Finanzielle Entwicklung; Bevölkerungsalterung; Simulationsrechnungen; Social Long-term Care Insurance; Public Health Insurance; Financial Development; Aging Population; Simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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