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Reviewing Taylor rules for Brazil: was there a turning-point?

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  • Ricardo Ramalhete MOREIRA

    (Federal University of Espírito Santo, BRAZIL)

Abstract

This article finds evidences highlighting that the Brazilian monetary policy is divergent from Taylor principles, from data over January 2005 to May 2013, and using regressions estimated by OLS and GMM. Especially, the inflationary expectations do not show robust effects on the Selic rate, while the inertial degree of the latter denotes a current pro-cyclical bias. Furthermore, the article tested for the effects of the Subprime crisis and the domestic currency undervaluation on the Selic level. The empirical results suggest that the Subprime crisis monetary authorities have preferred to stabilize or expand output, against the inflation stabilization, despite the Brazilian inflation target regime since 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Ramalhete MOREIRA, 2015. "Reviewing Taylor rules for Brazil: was there a turning-point?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 276-289, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ1:v:2:y:2015:i:2:p:276-289
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    Cited by:

    1. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Paiva, Claudio A.C., 2017. "Deconstructing credibility: The breaking of monetary policy rules in Brazil," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 31-52.
    2. Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón, 2021. "Specification errors, nonlinearities, and structural breaks in the Central Bank of Brazil’s reaction function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1243, March.
    3. Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete & Monte, Edson Zambon, 2020. "Reviewing monetary policy inertia and its effects: The fractional integration approach for an emerging economy," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 34-41.
    4. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    5. Marcos Stockl & Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira & Ana Carolina Giuberti, 2017. "O impacto das commodities sobre a dinâmica da inflação no Brasil e o papel amortecedor do câmbio: evidências para o CRB Índex e Índice de Commodities Brasil [The impact of commodities on Brazilian inf," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 27(1), pages 173-207, January-A.
    6. Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2017. "Pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil: long- and short-term relationships using cointegration and error correction model (2005-2015)," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 171-184.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taylor rule; Selic rate; Brazil; OLS; GMM.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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