IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nov/artigo/v27y2017i1p173-207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

O impacto das commodities sobre a dinâmica da inflação no Brasil e o papel amortecedor do câmbio: evidências para o CRB Índex e Índice de Commodities Brasil [The impact of commodities on Brazilian inflationary dynamics and the smoothing role of the exchange rate: evidences for the CRB Index and Commodity Index Brazil]

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Stockl

    (UFES)

  • Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira

    (UFES)

  • Ana Carolina Giuberti

    (UFES)

Abstract

This article investigates the impacts of shocks in commodity prices, measured by the CRB and IC-Br indexes, on the inflationary dynamics in Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2013, using vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Specifically, the role of the nominal exchange rate was tested as a smoothing mechanism for inflationary effects of those shocks. The main results were the following: (i) Both indexes are robust for anticipating consumer prices changes in Brazil; (ii) the CRB index is more suitable to express the inverse correlation of commodities prices and the nominal exchange rate in Brazil; (iii) the exchange rate changes caused by shocks in commodity prices are, as expected by the literature, an important mechanism to smooth the induced inflationary pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Stockl & Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira & Ana Carolina Giuberti, 2017. "O impacto das commodities sobre a dinâmica da inflação no Brasil e o papel amortecedor do câmbio: evidências para o CRB Índex e Índice de Commodities Brasil [The impact of commodities on Brazilian inf," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 27(1), pages 173-207, January-A.
    • Handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:27:y:2017:i:1:p:173-207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.scielo.br/pdf/neco/v27n1/1980-5381-neco-27-01-00173.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0103-63512017000100173&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=pt
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2008. "Optimal monetary policy with distinct core and headline inflation rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 18-33, October.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    4. José De Gregorio, 2012. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy, and Inflation†," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(4), pages 600-633, December.
    5. Alisson Curátola de Melo, 2013. "Brazil’s Commodity Price Index," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Sixth IFC Conference on "Statistical issues and activities in a changing environment", Basel, 28-29 August 2012., volume 36, pages 217-227, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    7. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities from Latin America and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 17074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    9. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    10. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    11. José de Gregorio, 2012. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation," Working Papers wp359, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    12. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    13. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 161-193.
    15. Eliane Cristina De Araujo & André De Melo Modenesi, 2011. "A Importância Do Setor Externo Na Evolução Do Ipca: Uma Análise Com Base Em Um Modelo Svar," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 009, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    16. Ricardo Ramalhete MOREIRA, 2015. "Reviewing Taylor rules for Brazil: was there a turning-point?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 276-289, June.
    17. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    18. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    19. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    20. Sebastian Edwards, 2011. "Exchange-Rate Policies in Emerging Countries: Eleven Empirical Regularities From Latin America and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 533-563, September.
    21. Aoki, Kosuke, 2001. "Optimal monetary policy responses to relative-price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 55-80, August.
    22. Acharya, Ram N. & Gentle, Paul F. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2008. "Examining The Crb Index As An Indicator For U.S. Inflation," 2008 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2008, Dallas, Texas 6760, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    23. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thiago Drummond de Mendonça Giudici & Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima, 2024. "The business cycle in Brazil: identification via heteroskedasticity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 649-684, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yau, Hwey-Yun, 2004. "Time series analysis for the interest rates relationships among China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan money markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 171-188, February.
    2. Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2015. "Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 154-161.
    3. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    4. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.
    5. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2006. "Interrelationships among stock prices of Taiwan and Japan and NTD/Yen exchange rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-552, June.
    6. Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2015. "Dynamic steam coal market integration: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 510-520.
    7. Hamdi, Helmi & Hakimi, Abdelaziz, 2015. "Corruption, FDI and Growth: All the truths of a corrupted regime before and after the social upsurge in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 63748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2014. "Long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization, energy consumption and economic activity: Empirical evidence from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 324-331.
    9. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship Between Defence Expenditures And Gdp In Taiwan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 361-385.
    10. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    11. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    12. Yuan, Jia-Hai & Kang, Jian-Gang & Zhao, Chang-Hong & Hu, Zhao-Guang, 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from China at both aggregated and disaggregated levels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3077-3094, November.
    13. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    14. repec:cii:cepiei:2012-q3-131-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 111-117.
    16. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Multivariate Granger Causality and the Dynamic Relationship between Health Care Spending, Income and Relative Price of Health Care in Malaysia," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(2), pages 199-214, December.
    17. Priya, Pragati & Sharma, Chandan, 2024. "On transmission channels of energy prices and monetary policy shocks to household consumption: Evidence from India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    18. Eléazar Zerbo, 2015. "What determines the long-run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Exploring the role of energy, trade openness and financial development in six countries," Working Papers hal-01238524, HAL.
    19. Leiva, Benjamin & Liu, Zhongyuan, 2019. "Energy and economic growth in the USA two decades later: Replication and reanalysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 89-99.
    20. Ya-Hui Huang & Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2016. "Medical Personnel and Life Expectancy: New Evidence from Taiwan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 1425-1447, September.
    21. Le, Thai-Ha & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Oil price shocks and trade imbalances," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 78-96.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodities prices; inflation; exchange rate; CRB; IC-Br;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nov:artigo:v:27:y:2017:i:1:p:173-207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lucas Resende de Carvalho (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fufmgbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.