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Pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil: long- and short-term relationships using cointegration and error correction model (2005-2015)

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  • Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira

Abstract

This article analyses the nature of the fiscal rule in Brazil, during the period from January 2005 to April 2015, by using a VEC model. The main findings indicate that Brazil's fiscal policy is a pro-cyclical one regarding public debt and inflation, thus contributing to understand why the public debt/GDP ratio presents a unit root over the last years. Moreover, it means that fiscal reactions were not consistent with the inflation targeting regime in Brazil.

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  • Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira, 2017. "Pro-cyclical fiscal policy in Brazil: long- and short-term relationships using cointegration and error correction model (2005-2015)," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(2), pages 171-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijepee:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:171-184
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anjos, Daniel & Moreira, Ricardo, 2023. "Fiscal Rules and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Estimates for a Large Emerging Economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 76(4), March.

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