IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/1088.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok
[Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]

Author

Listed:
  • Simonovits, András

Abstract

Az együttélő korosztályok valóság közeli modelljét vizsgáljuk. A népesség öregszik, mert a születésszám csökken, és a születéskor várható élettartam nő. Az időskori jövedelem egyik forrása a tb-nyugdíjrendszer, másik forrása a megtakarítás és az örökség. Az egymást követő korosztályok tagjai életpálya-hasznossági függvényüket maximalizálva határozzák meg fogyasztási pályájukat. Megtöltve a modellt számokkal, képesek vagyunk különböző nyugdíjstratégiákat összehasonlítani, így a következő modellváltozatokat mutatjuk be: 1. az alapfutás, 2. a skálaszorzók csökkentése, 3. a bérindexálás felváltása árindexálással, 4. a nyugdíjkorhatár emelése. Attól függően, hogy a résztvevők a változásokat előre látják, vagy sem, reakcióik különböznek. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C61, D91, E24, J17.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonovits, András, 2009. "Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok [Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-321.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=1088
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    2. Heikki Oksanen, 2004. "Public Pensions in the national accounts and public finance targets," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 207, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Mr. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 2000/018, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jody Overland & Christopher D. Carroll & David N. Weil, 2000. "Saving and Growth with Habit Formation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 341-355, June.
    5. Meier, Volker & Wrede, Matthias, 2010. "Pensions, fertility, and education," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 75-93, January.
    6. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, Francois, 2008. "Inequality and social security reforms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 386-410, February.
    7. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
    8. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    9. Roel Beetsma & Heikki Oksanen, 2007. "Pension Systems, Ageing and the Stability and Growth Pact," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 289, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Augusztinovics, Maria, 2000. "The dynamics of retirement saving -- theory and reality," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 111-128, July.
    11. John Karl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri & Surachai Khitatrakun, 2006. "Are Americans Saving "Optimally" for Retirement?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(4), pages 607-643, August.
    12. Hans Fehr, 2000. "Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(3), pages 419-443, September.
    13. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
    14. Heikki Oksanen, 2004. "Public Pensions in the National Accounts and Public Finance Targets," CESifo Working Paper Series 1214, CESifo.
    15. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    16. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:419-43 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simonovits, András & Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2011. "A személyi jövedelemadó reformjának hatása a társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjakra [The impact of personal income tax reform on public pensions]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1029-1044.
    2. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2009. "A népességöregedés, a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis és a világgazdasági válság [Population ageing, shrinking-wealth hypothesis, and world economic crisis]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 866-880.
    3. Varga, Gergely, 2014. "Demográfiai átmenet, gazdasági növekedés és a nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatósága [Demographic transition, economic growth, and sustainability of the pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1279-1318.
    4. Vékás, Péter & Bajkó, Attila & Maknics, Anita & Tóth, Krisztián, 2015. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer fenntarthatóságáról [On the sustainability of the Hungarian pension system - the long-term effects of demographic trends]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1229-1257.
    5. Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván, 2012. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer éves hozamrátái [Annual rates of return in the Hungarian pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 963-987.
    6. Szüle, Borbála, 2013. "Demográfiai hatások és implicit hozamok kapcsolata a nyugdíjrendszerekben [The relationship of demographic effects and implicit returns in pension systems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 703-721.
    7. Simonovits, András, 2015. "Hossz- és keresztmetszeti egyensúly az életpálya finanszírozásában [Longitudinal and cross-sectional equilibrium in lifetime financing]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 611-620.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andras Simonovits, 2012. "Pension Reforms in an Aging Society: A Fully Displayed Cohort Model," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 4, pages 1-30, December.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    3. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    4. Jan Hagemejer & Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," EcoMod2014 6868, EcoMod.
    5. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    6. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Florian Heiss & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2003. "Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4(2), pages 151-181, May.
    7. Joanna Tyrowicz & Krzysztof Makarski & Marcin Bielecki, 2016. "Reforming retirement age in DB and DC pension systems in an aging OLG economy with heterogenous agents," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-36, December.
    8. László, Csaba, 2018. "A magánnyugdíjpénztári rendszer "elszámolása" ["Reckoning up" the private pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 861-902.
    9. Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Jan Hagemejer & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," Working Papers 2014-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    10. Bielecki, Marcin & Goraus, Karolina & Hagemejer, Jan & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2016. "Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 125-143.
    11. Alexander L. Brown & Zhikang Eric Chua & Colin F. Camerer, 2009. "Learning and Visceral Temptation in Dynamic Saving Experiments," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 197-231.
    12. Hero Ashman & Seth Neumuller, 2020. "Can Income Differences Explain the Racial Wealth Gap: A Quantitative Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 220-239, January.
    13. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2014. "The potential effect of US baby-boom retirees on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 106-121.
    14. Audrey Desbonnet & Jean-Olivier Hairault, 2010. "Inégalité de patrimoine et progressivité de l'impôt," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 21-41.
    15. Borgmann, Christoph, 2002. "Labor income risk, demographic risk, and the design of (wage-indexed) social security," Discussion Papers 100, Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Finanzwissenschaft.
    16. Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.
    17. Wojciech Kopczuk, 2012. "Taxation of Intergenerational Transfers and Wealth," NBER Working Papers 18584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2016. "Savings After Retirement: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 177-204, October.
    19. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    20. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and asset prices," Papers 07-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.