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A magyar nyugdíjrendszer éves hozamrátái
[Annual rates of return in the Hungarian pension system]

Author

Listed:
  • Simonovits, András
  • Gál, Róbert Iván

Abstract

Tanulmányunkban bemutatunk egy Willis [1988] és Lee [1994] által levezetett összefüggést, amelyet Bommier-Lee [2003] általánosított. Az eredmény segítségével keresztmetszeti adatokból hosszmetszeti következtetéseket lehet levonni. Ennek felhasználásával az aktuális járuléktömeg, illetve a nyugdíjasok és járulékfizetők súlyozott átlagéletkora közötti különbség ismeretében kiszámoljuk a magyar felosztó-kirovó nyugdíjpillér keresztmetszeti hozamrátáit az 1992 és 2008 közötti évekre. Kiderül, hogy az első pillér az 1990-es évek első felében éveken át negatív hozamokat produkált, mert a foglalkoztatási krízis aláásta járulékbázisát. Hiányzott egy automatikus kiegyenlítő mechanizmus, amely a nyugdíjak és nyugdíjvárományok folyamatos leértékelésével biztosította volna a rendszer hosszú távú egyensúlyát. Ezért egyszeri radikális leértékelés történt az 1997. évi nyugdíjreform során. Az így megszerzett egyensúly azonban 2002-től kezdve gyors tempóban felborult, és a rendszer újabb egyszeri radikális kiigazításra szorult, ami 2009-ben be is következett az indexszabály újabb szigorításával és a korhatár továbbemelésével. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: H55, H62.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonovits, András & Gál, Róbert Iván, 2012. "A magyar nyugdíjrendszer éves hozamrátái [Annual rates of return in the Hungarian pension system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 963-987.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1333
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robalino, David A. & Bodor, András, 2009. "On the financial sustainability of earnings-related pension schemes with ‘pay-as-you-go’ financing and the role of government-indexed bonds," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 153-187, April.
    2. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(6), pages 467-467.
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    5. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & María del Carmen Boado-Penas & Ole Settergren, 2009. "Automatic Balance Mechanisms in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(2), pages 287-317, April.
    6. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2011. "Population Aging and the Generational Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13816.
    7. Antoine Bommier & Ronald D. Lee, 2003. "Overlapping generations models with realistic demography," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 135-160, February.
    8. Eduardo A. Haddad & Jaime Bonet & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings, 2023. "Introduction and Overview," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Eduardo A. Haddad & Jaime Bonet & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings (ed.), The Colombian Economy and Its Regional Structural Challenges, chapter 0, pages 1-16, Springer.
    9. Holzmann, Robert & Palacios, Robert & Zviniene, Asta, 2004. "Implicit pension debt: issues, measurement and scope in international perspective," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 30153, The World Bank.
    10. Simonovits, András, 2009. "Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok [Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-321.
    11. Köllő, János & Augusztinovics, Mária, 2007. "Munkapiaci pálya és nyugdíj, 1970-2020 [Labour-market performance and pensions, 1970-2020]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 529-559.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mihály, Nikolett & Komáromi, Nándor, 2017. "Pension Policy Challenges and Communication Solutions," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2017), Dubrovnik, Croatia, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Dubrovnik, Croatia, 7-9 September 2017, pages 274-281, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    2. Szüle, Borbála, 2013. "Demográfiai hatások és implicit hozamok kapcsolata a nyugdíjrendszerekben [The relationship of demographic effects and implicit returns in pension systems]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 703-721.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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