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A népességöregedés, a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis és a világgazdasági válság
[Population ageing, shrinking-wealth hypothesis, and world economic crisis]

Author

Listed:
  • Mosolygó, Zsuzsa

Abstract

A fejlett országokra jellemző népességöregedés a következő évtizedek egyik legmeghatározóbb folyamata lehet a világgazdaságban. A tanulmány arra hívja fel a figyelmet, hogy a népesség öregedése s ezen belül a baby boom nemzedék nyugdíjba vonulása a reálgazdasági hatásokon túl érinti a tőkepiacok hosszú távú folyamatait is. A tőkepiaci szakemberek és a gazdaságpolitika alakítói számára is nélkülözhetetlen a demográfiai folyamatok figyelemmel kísérése. Ezek jelzései ugyanis arra utalnak, hogy a következő évtizedekben megváltozhatnak a tőkepiaci tendenciák az elmúlt 20-30 évben megfigyelthez képest. A demográfiai szempontokat figyelembe véve, elképzelhető, hogy megszakad a világ nagy tőzsdéinek száguldása, s az is várható, hogy a fejlett piacok igen alacsony szintű reálkamatai újbóli tartós emelkedő pályára kerülnek. Mindezen folyamatok elméleti háttere a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis. A tanulmány az e hipotézis mellett és ellen szóló fő érvek elemzésén túl a nyugdíjrendszerbeli következményeket is érinti. Az elemzés kitér a jelenlegi világgazdasági válság demográfiai hátterére is. A baby boom nemzedék fokozatos inaktívvá válása egyúttal növeli a válság kedvezőtlen forgatókönyvének, az elhúzódó stagnálásnak a valószínűségét is. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL ) kód: E32, E44, E24, E21, G11, J14.

Suggested Citation

  • Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2009. "A népességöregedés, a vagyonzsugorodási hipotézis és a világgazdasági válság [Population ageing, shrinking-wealth hypothesis, and world economic crisis]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 866-880.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1122
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Robin Brooks, 2000. "What Will Happen to Financial Markets When the Baby Boomers Retire?," IMF Working Papers 2000/018, International Monetary Fund.
    2. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    3. Sebastian Schich, 2009. "Revisiting the asset-meltdown hypothesis," OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(2), pages 1-14.
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and asset prices," Papers 07-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    5. Simonovits, András, 2009. "Népességöregedés, tb-nyugdíj és megtakarítás - parametrikus nyugdíjreformok [Population aging, the public pension system, and savings: parametric pension reforms]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 297-321.
    6. Németh, György, 2009. "A nyugdíjreformról [On pension reform]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 239-269.
    7. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    8. repec:fth:harver:1414 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robin Brooks, 2006. "Demographic Change and Asset Prices," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2010. "A tőkefedezeti rendszer alapkérdéseinek új megközelítése [A new approach to the basic issues raised by the PAYE system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 612-633.
    2. Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2011. "On the long-term trends of public debt – Implications of the government’s Ponzi game and ageing," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(4), pages 446-473.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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