IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v48y2016icp272-281.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade the tweet: Social media text mining and sparse matrix factorization for stock market prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Sun, Andrew
  • Lachanski, Michael
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.

Abstract

We investigate the potential use of textual information from user-generated microblogs to predict the stock market. Utilizing the latent space model proposed by Wong et al. (2014), we correlate the movements of both stock prices and social media content. This study differs from models in prior studies in two significant ways: (1) it leverages market information contained in high-volume social media data rather than news articles and (2) it does not evaluate sentiment. We test this model on data spanning from 2011 to 2015 on a majority of stocks listed in the S&P 500 Index and find that our model outperforms a baseline regression. We conclude by providing a trading strategy that produces an attractive annual return and Sharpe ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Andrew & Lachanski, Michael & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2016. "Trade the tweet: Social media text mining and sparse matrix factorization for stock market prediction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 272-281.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:48:y:2016:i:c:p:272-281
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521916301600
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2016.10.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    2. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    3. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1259-1294 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    6. Felix Ming Fai Wong & Zhenming Liu & Mung Chiang, 2014. "Stock Market Prediction from WSJ: Text Mining via Sparse Matrix Factorization," Papers 1406.7330, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Rui & Talavera, Oleksandr & Tran, Vu, 2023. "Information flows and the law of one price," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Shaen Corbet & Yang (Greg) Hou & Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2022. "We Reddit in a Forum: The Influence of Message Boards on Firm Stability," Review of Corporate Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(1), pages 151-190, March.
    3. Anila Arif & Kashif Shafique & Khuram Ahmad Khan & Shahida Haji, 2021. "Analysis of Water Policy & Sustainable Development in Pakistan," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 3(4), pages 87-93, November.
    4. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Yingxia Xue & Honglei Liu, 2023. "Exploration of the Dynamic Evolution of Online Public Opinion towards Waste Classification in Shanghai," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Santi, Caterina, 2023. "Investor climate sentiment and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Maciej Wujec, 2021. "Analysis of the Financial Information Contained in the Texts of Current Reports: A Deep Learning Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Joseph D. Prusa & Ryan T. Sagul & Taghi M. Khoshgoftaar, 2019. "Extracting Knowledge from Technical Reports for the Valuation of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 109-123, February.
    9. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Baptiste Meunier & Raquel Caldeira, 2024. "Should Central Banks Care About Text Mining? A Literature Review," Working papers 950, Banque de France.
    10. Heba Ali, 2018. "Twitter, Investor Sentiment and Capital Markets: What Do We Know?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(8), pages 158-158, August.
    11. Afees A. Salisu & Raymond Swaray & Tirimisyu F. Oloko, 2017. "A multi-factor predictive model for oil-US stock nexus with persistence, endogeneity and conditional heteroscedasticity effects," Working Papers 024, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    12. Shen, Dehua & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2019. "Does twitter predict Bitcoin?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 118-122.
    13. Shilpa Srivastava & Millie Pant & Varuna Gupta, 2023. "Analysis and prediction of Indian stock market: a machine-learning approach," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 14(4), pages 1567-1585, August.
    14. Na, Haejung & Kim, Soonho, 2021. "Predicting stock prices based on informed traders’ activities using deep neural networks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Kumar, Rahul & Deb, Soumya Guha & Mukherjee, Shubhadeep, 2020. "Do words reveal the latent truth? Identifying communication patterns of corporate losers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    16. Wang, Fang & Gacesa, Marko, 2023. "Semi-strong efficient market of Bitcoin and Twitter: An analysis of semantic vector spaces of extracted keywords and light gradient boosting machine models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. U, JuHyok & Lu, PengYu & Kim, ChungSong & Ryu, UnSok & Pak, KyongSok, 2020. "A new LSTM based reversal point prediction method using upward/downward reversal point feature sets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Qiong Wu & Christopher G. Brinton & Zheng Zhang & Andrea Pizzoferrato & Zhenming Liu & Mihai Cucuringu, 2019. "Equity2Vec: End-to-end Deep Learning Framework for Cross-sectional Asset Pricing," Papers 1909.04497, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    19. Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    20. Ning Wang & Shanhui Ke & Yibo Chen & Tao Yan & Andrew Lim, 2019. "Textual Sentiment of Chinese Microblog Toward the Stock Market," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(02), pages 649-671, March.
    21. Andrea Fronzetti Colladon & Stefano Grassi & Francesco Ravazzolo & Francesco Violante, 2023. "Forecasting financial markets with semantic network analysis in the COVID‐19 crisis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(5), pages 1187-1204, August.
    22. Teti, Emanuele & Dallocchio, Maurizio & Aniasi, Alberto, 2019. "The relationship between twitter and stock prices. Evidence from the US technology industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    23. Naderi Semiromi, Hamed & Lessmann, Stefan & Peters, Wiebke, 2020. "News will tell: Forecasting foreign exchange rates based on news story events in the economy calendar," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    24. Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2023. "When Elon Musk Changes his Tone, Does Bitcoin Adjust Its Tune?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(2), pages 639-661, August.
    25. Francisco de Arriba-P'erez & Silvia Garc'ia-M'endez & Jos'e A. Regueiro-Janeiro & Francisco J. Gonz'alez-Casta~no, 2024. "Detection of financial opportunities in micro-blogging data with a stacked classification system," Papers 2404.07224, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Gabriele Ranco & Ilaria Bordino & Giacomo Bormetti & Guido Caldarelli & Fabrizio Lillo & Michele Treccani, 2014. "Coupling news sentiment with web browsing data improves prediction of intra-day price dynamics," Papers 1412.3948, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    3. Wei, Yu-Chen & Lu, Yang-Cheng & Chen, Jen-Nan & Hsu, Yen-Ju, 2017. "Informativeness of the market news sentiment in the Taiwan stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 158-181.
    4. Nadine Gatzert & Dinah Heidinger, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Market Reactions to the First Solvency and Financial Condition Reports in the European Insurance Industry," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(2), pages 407-436, June.
    5. Zheng Tracy Ke & Bryan T. Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2019. "Predicting Returns With Text Data," NBER Working Papers 26186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mao, Huina & Counts, Scott & Bollen, Johan, 2015. "Quantifying the effects of online bullishness on international financial markets," Statistics Paper Series 9, European Central Bank.
    7. Yekini, Liafisu Sina & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Millo, Yuval, 2016. "Market reaction to the positiveness of annual report narratives," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 415-430.
    8. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Fischer, Thomas G. & Krauss, Christopher, 2020. "Separating the signal from the noise – Financial machine learning for Twitter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Lim, Weng Marc & Pattnaik, Debidutta, 2021. "Artificial intelligence and machine learning in finance: Identifying foundations, themes, and research clusters from bibliometric analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    10. Mao, Huina & Counts, Scott & Bollen, Johan, 2015. "Quantifying the effects of online bullishness on international financial markets," Statistics Paper Series 09, European Central Bank.
    11. Prajwal Eachempati & Praveen Ranjan Srivastava, 2021. "Accounting for unadjusted news sentiment for asset pricing," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 383-422, May.
    12. Schnaubelt, Matthias & Fischer, Thomas G. & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Separating the signal from the noise - financial machine learning for Twitter," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 14/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    13. Stefan Feuerriegel & Nicolas Prollochs, 2018. "Investor Reaction to Financial Disclosures Across Topics: An Application of Latent Dirichlet Allocation," Papers 1805.03308, arXiv.org.
    14. Gabriele Ranco & Ilaria Bordino & Giacomo Bormetti & Guido Caldarelli & Fabrizio Lillo & Michele Treccani, 2016. "Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    15. Barakat, Ahmed & Ashby, Simon & Fenn, Paul & Bryce, Cormac, 2019. "Operational risk and reputation in financial institutions: Does media tone make a difference?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-24.
    16. Yan Luo & Linying Zhou, 2020. "Textual tone in corporate financial disclosures: a survey of the literature," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 101-110, September.
    17. Ferdinand Graf, 2011. "Mechanically Extracted Company Signals and their Impact on Stock and Credit Markets," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2011-18, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    18. Thomas Renault, 2020. "Sentiment analysis and machine learning in finance: a comparison of methods and models on one million messages," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, September.
    19. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "Central Bank Sentiment and Policy Expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459227, HAL.
    20. Steven Heston & Nitish R. Sinha, 2016. "News versus Sentiment : Predicting Stock Returns from News Stories," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:48:y:2016:i:c:p:272-281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.