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Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission

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  • Jeffrey E. Harris

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Eisner Health)

Abstract

We observed wide variation in the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 300 communities making up Los Angeles County, the largest county by population in the United States. The surge in incidence from October 19, 2020 to January 10, 2021, accounting for two-thirds of all confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic, was concentrated in communities with a high prevalence of multi-generational households. This indicator of household structure was a more important predictor of the surge in incidence than the prevalence of households with low income or with at least one high-risk worker. Based upon a spatial adaptation of the standard SIR model, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, adjusted for underascertainment of both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, ranged from under 10% in low multi-generational communities to over 30% in high multi-generational communities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jbioec:v:23:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10818-021-09310-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10818-021-09310-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For," NBER Working Papers 27166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Harris, Jeffrey E., 2020. "COVID-19, bar crowding, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court: A non-linear tale of two counties," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    10. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "The Contagion Externality of a Superspreading Event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Correction to: Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1039-1039, December.
    12. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Geospatial Analysis of the September 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin – Madison: Did a Cluster of Local Bars Play a Critical Role?," NBER Working Papers 28132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sean L. Wu & Andrew N. Mertens & Yoshika S. Crider & Anna Nguyen & Nolan N. Pokpongkiat & Stephanie Djajadi & Anmol Seth & Michelle S. Hsiang & John M. Colford & Art Reingold & Benjamin F. Arnold & Al, 2020. "Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristini, Annalisa & Trivin, Pedro, 2022. "Close encounters during a pandemic: Social habits and inter-generational links in the first two waves of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    2. Rodier, Caroline PhD & Horn, Abigail PhD & Zhang, Yunwan MSc & Kaddoura, Ihab PhD & Müller, Sebastian MSc, 2023. "Effectiveness of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Avert the Second COVID-19 Surge in Los Angeles County: A Simulation Study," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt5f78h654, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    3. Pensieroso, Luca & Sommacal, Alessandro & Spolverini, Gaia, 2023. "Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    4. Mullachery, Pricila H. & Li, Ran & Melly, Steven & Kolker, Jennifer & Barber, Sharrelle & Diez Roux, Ana V. & Bilal, Usama, 2022. "Inequities in spatial accessibility to COVID-19 testing in 30 large US cities," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).

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