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Promotion prospects and policy choice: evidence from the land market in China

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  • Chang Xue

    (Sun Yat-Sen University)

  • Xiaoyu Zhang

    (University of Nottingham Ningbo China)

Abstract

The career prospects of politicians are crucial determinants of their policy choices. This paper studies the impact of promotion incentives on policy choices by analyzing data on prefecture officials and local land market dynamics in China from 2007 to 2017. Our findings indicate that a decrease in promotion prospects for prefecture party secretaries hampers their motivation to promote economic growth. This results in a decline in industrial land transactions. However, similar patterns are not observed among mayors. Further exploration reveals that officials experiencing a decline in prospects exhibit a negative stance toward economic growth, as evidenced by their annual working reports. This research sheds light on the nuanced relationship between political career incentives and policy outcomes in the context of local land markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang Xue & Xiaoyu Zhang, 2024. "Promotion prospects and policy choice: evidence from the land market in China," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 200(1), pages 119-147, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:200:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11127-024-01145-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01145-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political connection; Promotion incentive; Local government policy; Land market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

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