IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v147y2020ics0304387820300997.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mandarins make markets: Leadership rotations and inter-provincial trade in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Junyan
  • Mei, Yuan

Abstract

The careers of many public officials span multiple localities, yet the economic effects of their inter-regional movements are not well understood. This paper focuses on the rotation of provincial leaders in China and studies its impact on regional economic integration. Estimation results using the gravity framework indicate that when a provincial leader is appointed as the party secretary of a new province, the trade volume from the new province to the old province increases, but not vice versa. Additional analyses using two novel datasets that capture the intensity of inter-provincial socioeconomic activities in China corroborate this finding. We then construct a quantitative trade model that incorporates input-output linkages and show that removing such inter-provincial links associated with the rotation of provincial leaders leads to an average welfare loss of 0.03%.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Junyan & Mei, Yuan, 2020. "Mandarins make markets: Leadership rotations and inter-provincial trade in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:147:y:2020:i:c:s0304387820300997
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387820300997
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102524?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sandra Poncet, 2005. "A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Disintegration," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 409-430, August.
    2. Petra Persson & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2016. "The Limits Of Career Concerns In Federalism: Evidence From China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 338-374, April.
    3. Pushan Dutt & Daniel Traca, 2010. "Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows: Extortion or Evasion?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 843-860, November.
    4. Paul R. Milgrom & Douglass C. North & Barry R. Weingast*, 1990. "The Role Of Institutions In The Revival Of Trade: The Law Merchant, Private Judges, And The Champagne Fairs," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Chen, Ye & Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Relative performance evaluation and the turnover of provincial leaders in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 421-425, September.
    6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    7. Junyan Jiang, 2018. "Making Bureaucracy Work: Patronage Networks, Performance Incentives, and Economic Development in China," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 982-999, October.
    8. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01313799 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Timothy Besley & Jose G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal‐Querol, 2011. "Do Educated Leaders Matter?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages 205-205, August.
    10. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    11. Pierre‐Guillaume Méon & Khalid Sekkat, 2008. "Institutional Quality And Trade: Which Institutions? Which Trade?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 227-240, April.
    12. Guo Xu, 2018. "The Costs of Patronage: Evidence from the British Empire," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(11), pages 3170-3198, November.
    13. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 7828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Gehlbach, Scott & Keefer, Philip, 2011. "Investment without democracy: Ruling-party institutionalization and credible commitment in autocracies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 123-139, June.
    15. Adolph,Christopher, 2013. "Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107032613, October.
    16. Weingast, Barry R, 1995. "The Economic Role of Political Institutions: Market-Preserving Federalism and Economic Development," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, April.
    17. Daniel Berger & William Easterly & Nathan Nunn & Shanker Satyanath, 2013. "Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade during the Cold War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 863-896, April.
    18. Chong-en Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Song, 2020. "Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 341-379.
    19. Yang Yao & Muyang Zhang, 2015. "Subnational leaders and economic growth: evidence from Chinese cities," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 405-436, December.
    20. Ruixue Jia & Masayuki Kudamatsu & David Seim, 2015. "Political Selection In China: The Complementary Roles Of Connections And Performance," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 631-668, August.
    21. Jiang, Junyan & Zhang, Muyang, 2020. "Friends with benefits: Patronage networks and distributive politics in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    22. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    23. North, Douglass C. & Weingast, Barry R., 1989. "Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-Century England," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 803-832, December.
    24. Michael Song, 2014. "Crony Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics," 2014 Meeting Papers 1145, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    25. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
    26. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    27. Ralph Ossa, 2014. "Trade Wars and Trade Talks with Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4104-4146, December.
    28. Roland Hodler & Paul A. Raschky, 2014. "Regional Favoritism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 995-1033.
    29. Yasheng Huang, 2002. "Managing Chinese Bureaucrats: An Institutional Economics Perspective," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 50(1), pages 61-79, March.
    30. Alwyn Young, 2000. "The Razor's Edge: Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People's Republic of China," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1091-1135.
    31. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Xiangyu & Xi, Tianyang & Zhang, Xiaobo & Zhang, Yifan, 2021. "“Moving Umbrella”: Bureaucratic transfers and the comovement of interregional investments in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Hu, Zhi-An & Li, Jinghong & Nie, Zhuo, 2023. "Long Live friendship? The long-term impact of Soviet aid on Sino-Russian trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    3. Guowen Chen, 2021. "Governance continuity and administration efficiency," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Li, Yue & Shao, Xiang & Tao, Zhigang & Yuan, Hongjie, 2022. "How local leaders matter: Inter-provincial leadership transfers and land transactions in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 196-220.
    5. Mian Yang & Ruofan He & Panbing Wan, 2024. "The transfer of provincial officials and electricity transactions in China," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 198(3), pages 377-402, March.
    6. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2024. "More but not better: Career incentives of local leaders and entrepreneurial entry in China," Working Papers 202417, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Shawn Xiaoguang & Liu, Yong & Xu, Xianxiang, 2020. "Dynamics of Local Cadre Appointment in China11We are grateful to the editor Cheryl Long, and three referees for their valuable comments. Shawn Xiaoguang Chen thanks the support of Beijing Municipal Ed," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Hanming Fang & Ming Li & Zenan Wu, 2022. "Tournament-Style Political Competition and Local Protectionism: Theory and Evidence from China," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-031, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Yu Bai & Yanjun Li, 2022. "Political tournaments and regional growth‐enhancing policies: Evidence from Chinese prefectures," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1358-1385, November.
    4. Trong‐Anh Trinh & Simon Feeny, 2024. "Does the power of the king stop at the village gate? Embeddedness and provincial development in Vietnam," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 677-707, July.
    5. Danqing Wang & Zhitao Zhu & Shuo Chen & Xiaowei Rose Luo, 2021. "Running out of steam? A political incentive perspective of FDI inflows in China," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(4), pages 692-717, June.
    6. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    7. Li, Yue & Shao, Xiang & Tao, Zhigang & Yuan, Hongjie, 2022. "How local leaders matter: Inter-provincial leadership transfers and land transactions in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 196-220.
    8. Eberhardt, Markus & Wang, Zheng & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "From one to many central plans: Drug advertising inspections and intra-national protectionism in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 608-622.
    9. Xue, Chang & Zhang, Xiaoyu, 2024. "Gloomy future, gloomy sky: Promotion incentives and pollution in China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "On the role of domestic trade flows for estimating the gravity model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 526-540, July.
    11. Agnosteva, Delina E. & Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "Intra-national trade costs: Assaying regional frictions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 32-50.
    12. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2024. "More but not better: Career incentives of local leaders and entrepreneurial entry in China," Working Papers 202417, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    13. Li, Daniel Z. & Li, Zeren & Zhang, Qi, 2023. "Public investment as downward benefit distribution: Theory and evidence from China’s public–private partnership programs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 103-128.
    14. Wu, Mingqin & Chen, Bin, 2016. "Assignment of provincial officials based on economic performance: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 60-75.
    15. Ya Zhao & Lennon H. T. Choy & Kwong Wing Chau, 2023. "Political Circles and Land Supply for the Service and Industrial Sectors: Evidence from 284 Cities in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Cheng, Hui-Pei & Swee, Eik Leong, 2024. "Farewell President! Political favoritism, economic inequality, and political polarization," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    17. Cheng, Maoyong & Yao, Yutong & Jin, Justin Y. & Nainar, Khalid & Meng, Yu, 2024. "Leadership vacuum and urban economic development: Evidence from a transition country," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 230-252.
    18. Wang, Jiayi & Lei, Ping, 2021. "The tournament of Chinese environmental protection: Strong or weak competition?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    19. Markus Eberhardt & Zheng Wang & Zhihong Yu, 2013. "Intra-National Protectionism in China: Evidence from the Public Disclosure of ‘Illegal’ Drug Advertising," Discussion Papers 2013-04, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    20. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis & Yuta Takahashi, 2020. "Universal Gravity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(2), pages 393-433.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional integration; Domestic trade; Leadership rotation in China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:147:y:2020:i:c:s0304387820300997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.