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What’s a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections

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  • Thomas Carsey
  • William Berry

Abstract

Existing theories of contesting elections typically treat all potential challengers as identical while under-playing the importance of political parties and primary contests. We offer a theory addressing these issues based on how the various actors in the process define and evaluate the probability of winning an election and the value of the office being contested. We test our theory by estimating a model predicting which of three responses a party that loses a legislative race makes in the next cycle: nominating the same candidate, nominating a new candidate, or nominating no one. We find substantial empirical support for our theory. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Carsey & William Berry, 2014. "What’s a losing party to do? The calculus of contesting state legislative elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 251-273, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:160:y:2014:i:1:p:251-273
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-013-0079-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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