IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/policy/v57y2024i4d10.1007_s11077-024-09542-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How budgets change: punctuations, trends, and super-trends

Author

Listed:
  • Ehud Segal

    (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

  • Frank R. Baumgartner

    (UNC Chapel Hill)

Abstract

Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) describes policy change as occurring mostly through incremental movements with infrequent periods of dramatic change. An impressive body of empirical literature relating to budgeting supports this view, but virtually all empirical tests have focused on examining distributions of annual changes, thus nullifying chronology. In this article, we focus on the time element. Using the same databases as previously used in canonical PET studies, we explore multi-year trends, not only annual observations. For our analyses, we identify directional series of changes (while allowing for one-year changes in direction if these are immediately offset in the following year) on a U.S. budget distribution dataset covering the period of 1947 through 2014, with 60 categories of spending consistently defined over time and adjusted for inflation. We then assess the robustness of the PET findings when incorporating a longer time units of trending series of annual changes into the analysis. We find that almost 65% of changes occur in series of 4 years or more. Nonetheless, the signature PET literature pattern of high kurtosis is equally present in these series as well as in shorter series. Moreover, within growing and trending series, we find that 21% of these series generate 80% of positive budget change. Within these series, we identify a small group of “super-trends” that account for a large share of the overall change. We conclude that expanding methodologies for the study of budgetary change to incorporate longer-term dynamics helps to better understand policy change, but such findings remain consistent with the PET perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehud Segal & Frank R. Baumgartner, 2024. "How budgets change: punctuations, trends, and super-trends," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 57(4), pages 823-849, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:policy:v:57:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11077-024-09542-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11077-024-09542-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11077-024-09542-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11077-024-09542-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johanna Kuhlmann & Jeroen van der Heijden, 2018. "What Is Known about Punctuated Equilibrium Theory? And What Does That Tell Us about the Construction, Validation, and Replication of Knowledge in the Policy Sciences?," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 35(2), pages 326-347, March.
    2. Hacker, Jacob S., 2004. "Privatizing Risk without Privatizing the Welfare State: The Hidden Politics of Social Policy Retrenchment in the United States," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(2), pages 243-260, May.
    3. Benjamin Cashore & Michael Howlett, 2007. "Punctuating Which Equilibrium? Understanding Thermostatic Policy Dynamics in Pacific Northwest Forestry," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 532-551, July.
    4. Larkey, Patrick D. & Stolp, Chandler & Winer, Mark, 1981. "Theorizing About the Growth of Government: A Research Assessment," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(2), pages 157-220, May.
    5. Flink, Carla M. & Robinson, Scott E., 2020. "Corrective policy reactions: positive and negative budgetary punctuations," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 96-115, March.
    6. Jones, Bryan D. & Sulkin, Tracy & Larsen, Heather A., 2003. "Policy Punctuations in American Political Institutions," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 151-169, February.
    7. Coleman, William D. & Skogstad, Grace D. & Atkinson, Michael M., 1996. "Paradigm Shifts and Policy Networks: Cumulative Change in Agriculture," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 273-301, September.
    8. Thomas Holyoke & Jeffrey Henig & Heath Brown & Natalie Lacireno-Paquet, 2009. "Policy dynamics and the evolution of state charter school laws," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 42(1), pages 33-55, February.
    9. Kamlet, Mark S. & Mowery, David C., 1987. "Influences on Executive and Congressional Budgetary Priorities, 1955–1981," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 155-178, March.
    10. Bryan D. Jones & László Zalányi & Péter Érdi, 2014. "An Integrated Theory of Budgetary Politics and Some Empirical Tests: The U.S. National Budget, 1791–2010," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(3), pages 561-578, July.
    11. Bryan D. Jones & Frank R. Baumgartner & Christian Breunig & Christopher Wlezien & Stuart Soroka & Martial Foucault & Abel François & Christoffer Green‐Pedersen & Chris Koski & Peter John & Peter B. Mo, 2009. "A General Empirical Law of Public Budgets: A Comparative Analysis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 855-873, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Travis Sharp, 2019. "Wars, presidents, and punctuated equilibriums in US defense spending," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 52(3), pages 367-396, September.
    2. Omri Carmon & Itay Fischhendler, 2021. "A friction perspective for negotiating renewable energy targets: the Israeli case," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(2), pages 313-344, June.
    3. Wordliczek Lukasz, 2021. "Between incrementalism and punctuated equilibrium: the case of budget in Poland, 1995–2018," Central European Journal of Public Policy, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 14-30, December.
    4. Tevfik Murat Yildirim, 2022. "Stability and change in the public’s policy agenda: a punctuated equilibrium approach," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 55(2), pages 337-350, June.
    5. Ciqi Mei & Zhilin Liu, 2014. "Experiment-based policy making or conscious policy design? The case of urban housing reform in China," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 47(3), pages 321-337, September.
    6. Louis-Robert Beaulieu-Guay & Maria Alejandra Costa & Éric Montpetit, 2023. "Policy change and information search: a test of the politics of information using regulatory data," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 56(2), pages 377-418, June.
    7. Castles, Francis G., 2006. "The growth of the post-war public expenditure state: long-term trajectories and recent trends," TranState Working Papers 35, University of Bremen, Collaborative Research Center 597: Transformations of the State.
    8. Kwan Nok Chan & Shiwei Fan, 2021. "Friction and bureaucratic control in authoritarian regimes," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 1406-1418, October.
    9. Laudari, Hari Krishna & Aryal, Kishor & Maraseni, Tek, 2020. "A postmortem of forest policy dynamics of Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Leonore Haelg & Sebastian Sewerin & Tobias S. Schmidt, 2020. "The role of actors in the policy design process: introducing design coalitions to explain policy output," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 53(2), pages 309-347, June.
    11. Inke Torfs & Ellen Wayenberg & Lieselot Danneels, 2023. "Institutional shifts and punctuated patterns in digital policy," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 40(3), pages 363-388, May.
    12. Ilana Shpaizman, 2020. "The end–means nexus and policy conversion: evidence from two cases in Israeli immigrant integration policy," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 53(4), pages 713-733, December.
    13. Gore, Radhika, 2021. "Ensuring the ordinary: Politics and public service in municipal primary care in India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    14. Uk Heo & John Bohte, 2012. "Who Pays for National Defense? Financing Defense Programs in the United States, 1947–2007," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 56(3), pages 413-438, June.
    15. Elliott, William & Friedline, Terri & Nam, Ilsung, 2013. "Probability of living through a period of economic instability," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 453-460.
    16. Lepori, Benedetto & Montauti, Martina, 2020. "Bringing the organization back in: Flexing structural responses to competing logics in budgeting," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    18. Natalia V. TRUSOVA & Oleksandr S. PRYSTEMSKYI & Oksana V. HRYVKIVSKA & Alina Zh. SAKUN & Yurii Y. KYRYLOV, 2021. "Modeling Of System Factors Of Financial Security Of Agricultural Enterprises Of Ukraine," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 169-182, June.
    19. González, Felipe, 2017. "Privatized Keynesianism or conspicuous consumption? Status anxiety and the financialization of consumption in Chile," MPIfG Discussion Paper 17/3, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    20. Rosina K Foli & Frank L K Ohemeng, 2022. "“Provide our basic needs or we go out”: the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, inequality, and social policy in Ghana [Easing of lockdown a relief to Ghana’s poor—despite fears it is premature]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 41(2), pages 217-230.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:policy:v:57:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11077-024-09542-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.