IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/openec/v35y2024i1d10.1007_s11079-023-09718-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Yahui Yang

    (Anhui University of Finance and Economics)

  • Zhe Peng

    (University of Guelph
    Property and Casualty Insurance Compensation Corporation (PACICC))

Abstract

In recent years, China has introduced a series of trade and financial liberalization policies and taken a crucial step towards the internationalization of RMB. These new developments bring about one question: how has openness affected the RMB real exchange rate volatility? Our empirical results reveal that in the long term, both trade and financial openness reduce exchange rate volatility; in the short term, the effect of financial openness varies across the three financial sub-accounts. Financial development can magnify (mitigate) the impact of trade openness on volatility in the short (long) term, but its role in affecting the impact of financial openness depends on the financial sub-account involved. Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) weakens the impact of openness on exchange rate volatility. In addition, financial openness absorbs more external shocks than trade openness. Foreign exchange reserves, while offsetting financial crisis shocks, cannot adequately absorb current account balance shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng, 2024. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 121-158, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:35:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-023-09718-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-023-09718-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11079-023-09718-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11079-023-09718-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in an Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 812-815, November.
    3. Mi Dai & Jianwei Xu, 2013. "Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rate for China: 2000–2009," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(5), pages 100-120, September.
    4. Devereux, Michael B. & Lane, Philip R., 2003. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 109-132, May.
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    6. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2018. "The External Wealth of Nations Revisited: International Financial Integration in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 189-222, March.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2009. "A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 447-481.
    8. Marc Klau & San Sau Fung, 2006. "The new BIS effective exchange rate indices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    9. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2017. "International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility in emerging Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Hwee K. Chow, 2021. "Connectedness of Asia Pacific forex markets: China's growing influence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3807-3818, July.
    12. Al-Abri, Almukhtar & Baghestani, Hamid, 2015. "Foreign investment and real exchange rate volatility in emerging Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 34-47.
    13. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Edwards, Sebastian & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2012. "Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1990-2016.
    15. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
    16. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    17. Trust R. Mpofu, 2021. "The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1380-1401, May.
    18. Mr. M. Nowak & Mr. Ketil Hviding & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2004/189, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Lee, Chia-Hao & Chou, Pei-I, 2018. "Financial openness and market liquidity in emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 124-130.
    20. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    21. Tran, Vu Le & Leirvik, Thomas, 2019. "A simple but powerful measure of market efficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 141-151.
    22. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2020. "Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p‐values in Equilibrium Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1456-1481, December.
    23. Gao, Yichen & Li, Hongjun & Li, Qi, 2022. "The misalignments in Chinese real effective exchange rate from 1994 to 2020: A counterfactual analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    24. Michael Bleaney, 2008. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 135-146, April.
    25. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
    26. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2018. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 176-204.
    27. Keefe, Helena Glebocki, 2021. "The transmission of global monetary and credit shocks on exchange market pressure in emerging markets and developing economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    28. Eslamloueyan, Karim & Fatemifar, Neda, 2021. "Does deeper financial integration lead to macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 437-451.
    29. Robert Krol, 2014. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 241-256, June.
    30. Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng & Jai-Won Ryou, 2023. "What determines the long-term volatility of the offshore RMB exchange rate?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(21), pages 2367-2388, May.
    31. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
    32. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "The implications of monetary expansion in China for the US dollar," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 71-84.
    33. Dong Lu & Tian Xia & Hang Zhou, 2022. "Foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy rules under a managed floating regime: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(28), pages 3226-3245, June.
    34. Li, Guangzhong & Zhu, Jiaqing & Li, Jie, 2016. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 103-129.
    35. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2010. "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 731-750, November.
    36. Huang, Wei-Ling & Lin, Wen-Yuan & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2020. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on China’s housing market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    37. Zhu, Jiaqing, 2019. "External financial liabilities and real exchange rate jumps," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 202-220.
    38. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Kim, Yoonbai & Chang, Chun Ping, 2012. "The political economy of exchange rate regimes in developed and developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 38-53.
    39. Ramachandran, M. & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2007. "Asymmetric exchange rate intervention and international reserve accumulation in India," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 259-265, February.
    40. Helena Glebocki Keefe & Sujata Saha, 2022. "Threshold effects of openness on real and nominal effective exchange rates in emerging and developing economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1386-1408, May.
    41. Renu Kohli, 2015. "Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility in India: How Crucial Are Reserves?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 577-591, August.
    42. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2014. "Sources Of Real Exchange Rate Volatility And International Financial Integration: A Dynamic Generalised Method Of Moments Panel Approach," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 810-820, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trust R. Mpofu, 2021. "The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1380-1401, May.
    2. Calderón, César & Kubota, Megumi, 2018. "Does higher openness cause more real exchange rate volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 176-204.
    3. Victor Shevchuk & Roman Kopych, 2021. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C. N., 2017. "Central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2024. "Stabilizing global foreign exchange markets in the time of COVID-19: The role of vaccinations," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    6. Febrio Kacaribu & Syahda Sabrina & Teuku Riefky, 2021. "Does The Service Trade Openness Mitigate Real Exchange Rate Volatility?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 24(2), pages 237-254, June.
    7. Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C.N., 2018. "Central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 23-49.
    8. Abir Abid & Christophe Rault, 2021. "On the Exchange Rates Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Nexus: A Panel VAR Approach for Emerging Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 403-425, September.
    9. Weber, Christoph S., 2019. "The effect of central bank transparency on exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 165-181.
    10. Vu Manh Hoai Nguyen & Tin Huu Ho & Luan Huynh Nguyen & An Thi Ha Pham, 2023. "The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Stability in Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, July.
    11. Terver Theophilus Kumeka & Olabusuyi Rufus Falayi & Adeniyi Jimmy Adedokun & Francis Olayinka Adeyemi, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure in Nigeria: a quantile regression analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2), pages 135-166.
    12. Oğuz Tümtürk, 2022. "Global Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(37), pages 69-84, December.
    13. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2010. "What Makes Currencies Volatile? An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 731-750, November.
    14. Terver T. Kumeka & Olabusuyi R. Falayi & Adeniyi J. Adedokun & Francis O. Adeyemi, 2022. "An econometric analysis of economic policy uncertainty and exchange market pressure of the three largest economies in West Africa," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(11), pages 1-33, November.
    15. Lin Liu, 2022. "Economic Uncertainty and Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    16. Zhang, Hao & Zhu, Jiaqing, 2022. "Does trade cause fear of appreciation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 68-80.
    17. Michael Bleaney & Mo Tian, 2012. "Currency Networks, Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility and the Role of the US Dollar," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 785-803, November.
    18. Song, Lu & Tian, Gengyu & Jiang, Yonghong, 2022. "Connectedness of commodity, exchange rate and categorical economic policy uncertainties — Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Zhou, Zhongbao & Fu, Zhangyan & Jiang, Yong & Zeng, Ximei & Lin, Ling, 2020. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict exchange rate volatility? New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    20. Al-Abri, Almukhtar, 2013. "Real exchange rate volatility, terms-of-trade shocks, and financial integration in primary-commodity exporting economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 126-129.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate volatility; Openness; Financial development; Economic policy uncertainty; Foreign exchange reserves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:35:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11079-023-09718-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.