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Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility in India: How Crucial Are Reserves?

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  • Renu Kohli

Abstract

This paper tests if the adequacy of reserves helps reduce exchange rate volatility in an environment of financial globalization, market-determined exchange rate and macroeconomic imbalances. It exploits the difference in the period after 2010 when India did not accumulate reserves but faced higher capital flow pressures, relative to a previous managed-float period marked by significant absorption of surplus capital flows. Along with other determinants, the sensitivity of rupee volatility is examined. The paper finds that adequate reserve holdings significantly reduce exchange rate volatility irrespective of the exchange rate regime; the effect is more through influence upon market sentiment and confidence than actual intervention. It contributes to existing evidence on the role of reserves in mitigating exchange rate volatility amid capital flow swings and offers insights into the policy environment depicted in the trilemma.

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  • Renu Kohli, 2015. "Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility in India: How Crucial Are Reserves?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 577-591, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:19:y:2015:i:3:p:577-591
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    1. Padhan, Hemachandra & Sahu, Santosh Kumar & Dash, Umakant, 2021. "Non-linear analysis of international reserve, trade and trilemma in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Melis, Michael & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2019. "Determinants of global capital volatility in the BRICS grouping," MPRA Paper 94125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Yahui Yang & Zhe Peng, 2024. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 121-158, February.
    4. Majumder Sayantan Bandhu & Nag Ranjanendra Narayan, 2017. "Policy Trilemma in India: Exchange Rate Stability, Independent Monetary Policy and Capital Account Openness," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-13, September.

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