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Assessing the credibility of central bank signals: The case of transitory inflation

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  • Baker, John D.
  • Lam, Jean-Paul

Abstract

We present a novel text-based measure on the credibility of the now infamous signal from the Federal Reserve regarding transitory inflation in 2021. Specifically, we construct a daily sentiment index from an extensive set of news articles. The measure illustrates a declining sentiment of trust in the signal as U.S. inflation persisted and accelerated through 2021. Daily VAR estimates show that credibility diminishes significantly following positive inflation surprises and that negative credibility shocks boost inflation expectations over the short and long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Baker, John D. & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2022. "Assessing the credibility of central bank signals: The case of transitory inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:220:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522003494
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110875
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlos Carvalho & Eric Hsu & Fernanda Nechio, 2016. "Measuring the effect of the zero lower bound on monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2016-6, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
    3. Montiel Olea, José L. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2021. "Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions identified with an external instrument," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 74-87.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 19-45, February.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(610), pages 917-948, May.
    6. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    7. Feinerer, Ingo & Hornik, Kurt & Meyer, David, 2008. "Text Mining Infrastructure in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 25(i05).
    8. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chee-Hong Law & Kim Huat Goh, 2024. "A systematic literature review of the implications of media on inflation expectations," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 311-340, May.
    2. Chibane, Messaoud & Kuhanathan, Ano, 2023. "Is the fed failing to re-anchor expectations? An analysis of jumps in inflation swaps," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Transitory inflation; Central bank signal; Central bank communications; Inflation expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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