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The Impact of Crises on Maritime Traffic: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Krzysztof Węcel

    (Poznań University of Economics and Business)

  • Milena Stróżyna

    (Poznań University of Economics and Business)

  • Marcin Szmydt

    (Poznań University of Economics and Business)

  • Witold Abramowicz

    (Poznań University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

Maritime transport plays a key role in the global and local economy, accounting for 80% of global trade by volume. This makes smooth operation of the maritime transport essential. However, the sector faces the constant risk of various crises and their potential consequences that may significantly impact and disrupt the movement of goods on local, regional, and global levels. In recent years, two notable crises, namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have been observed. This paper aims to analyse how international crises, such as armed conflicts and pandemics, influence maritime traffic and assess their impact on both global and local economies. A comparison is drawn between the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and before and during the war in Ukraine to exemplify the effects of crises. The findings are then extrapolated to apply to potential future crises. Vessel movements are studied using data collected from Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). In our quantitative approach, we analyse big data using dedicated tools and visualisation techniques to gain insights into specific phenomena. The paper identifies economically significant regions for maritime traffic and examines the impact of crises on their performance. Its unique value lies in its flow-based analysis of changes in maritime traffic. The main conclusion is that China's importance for worldwide maritime traffic is increasing. This makes the global economy heavily reliant on China to a substantially greater extent than it is, for example, on Russia. Consequently, any crisis in the China region could exert a dramatic impact on the global economy. The paper also discusses observations of changes in maritime traffic following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Węcel & Milena Stróżyna & Marcin Szmydt & Witold Abramowicz, 2024. "The Impact of Crises on Maritime Traffic: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 199-230, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:24:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11067-023-09612-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-023-09612-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dominik Filipiak & Krzysztof Węcel & Milena Stróżyna & Michał Michalak & Witold Abramowicz, 2020. "Extracting Maritime Traffic Networks from AIS Data Using Evolutionary Algorithm," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 62(5), pages 435-450, October.
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    4. César Ducruet, 2020. "The geography of maritime networks : a critical review," Post-Print hal-03246890, HAL.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Maritime traffic; AIS; Spatial dynamics; Crisis management; Pandemic; War; Data quality; Big data; Data science;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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