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Learning under compound risk vs. learning under ambiguity – an experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Othon M. Moreno

    (Banco de México)

  • Yaroslav Rosokha

    (Purdue University)

Abstract

We design and conduct an economic experiment to investigate the learning process of agents under compound risk and under ambiguity. We gather data for subjects choosing between lotteries involving risky and ambiguous urns. Agents make decisions in conjunction with a sequence of random draws with replacement, allowing us to estimate the agents’ beliefs at different moments in time. For each type of urn, we estimate a behavioral model for which the standard Bayesian updating model is a particular case. Our findings suggest an important difference in updating behavior between risky and ambiguous environments. Specifically, even after controlling for the initial prior, we find that when learning under ambiguity, subjects significantly overweight the new signal, while when learning under compound risk, subjects are essentially Bayesian.

Suggested Citation

  • Othon M. Moreno & Yaroslav Rosokha, 2016. "Learning under compound risk vs. learning under ambiguity – an experiment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 137-162, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:53:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-017-9250-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-017-9250-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Roxane Bricet, 2018. "The price for instrumentally valuable information," THEMA Working Papers 2018-10, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    5. Utteeyo Dasgupta, 2016. "Shooting in the Dark: Do Prices Matter in Ambiguous Environments?," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, June.
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    7. Kathleen Ngangoué, M., 2021. "Learning under ambiguity: An experiment in gradual information processing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Li, Jiangyan & Fairley, Kim & Fenneman, Achiel, 2024. "Does it matter how we produce ambiguity in experiments?," MPRA Paper 122336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Stanton Hudja & Daniel Woods, 2024. "Exploration versus exploitation: A laboratory test of the single‐agent exponential bandit model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 267-286, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belief formation; Learning; Baysian updating; Ambiguity; Experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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