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An experimental test of the predictive power of dynamic ambiguity models

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  • Konstantinos Georgalos

    (Lancaster University Management School)

Abstract

In this paper we report results from an economic experiment where we investigate the predictive performance of dynamic ambiguity models in the gains domain. Representing ambiguity with the aid of a transparent and non-manipulable device (a Bingo Blower) and using two-stage allocation questions, we gather data that allow us to estimate particular parametric forms of the various functionals and compare their relative performance in terms of out-of-sample fit. Our data show that a dynamic specification of Prospect Theory has the best predictive capacity, closely followed by Choquet Expected Utility, while multiple-prior theories can predict choice only for a very restricted subset of our subjects.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Georgalos, 2019. "An experimental test of the predictive power of dynamic ambiguity models," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 51-83, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:59:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11166-019-09311-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-019-09311-7
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mira Frick & Ryota Iijima & Yves Le Yaouanq, 2020. "Objective rationality foundations for (dynamic) alpha-MEU," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2244R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 2021.
    3. Frick, Mira & Iijima, Ryota & Le Yaouanq, Yves, 2022. "Objective rationality foundations for (dynamic) α-MEU," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Alex Stomper & Marie‐Louise Vierø, 2022. "Iterated expectations under rank‐dependent expected utility and implications for common valuation methods," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 739-763, May.
    5. Li, Jiangyan & Fairley, Kim & Fenneman, Achiel, 2024. "Does it matter how we produce ambiguity in experiments?," MPRA Paper 122336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Georgalos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Dynamic decision making under ambiguity: An experimental investigation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 28-46.

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