IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v66y2023i2d10.1007_s11146-021-09844-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Past Experiences and Investment Decisions: Evidence from Real Estate Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Brent W. Ambrose

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Lily Shen

    (Clemson University)

Abstract

This paper investigates how market participants form risk perspectives through a sequence of information shocks. Guided by a theoretical Bayesian learning model, we exploit a natural experiment afforded by the fracking boom in Pennsylvania in the late-2000s. We empirically examine whether familiarity with historical conventional gas explorations affects the willingness to pay for houses near fracking wells. We find the local real estate market is very efficient with participants rapidly collecting and processing market–relevant new information. We also find that participants discount historical events and rely on current information to estimate the risk of a change in market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent W. Ambrose & Lily Shen, 2023. "Past Experiences and Investment Decisions: Evidence from Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 300-326, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:66:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-021-09844-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-021-09844-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-021-09844-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-021-09844-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiel, Katherine A. & Williams, Michael, 2007. "The impact of Superfund sites on local property values: Are all sites the same?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 170-192, January.
    2. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2015. "The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3633-3659, December.
    3. Leggett, Christopher G. & Bockstael, Nancy E., 2000. "Evidence of the Effects of Water Quality on Residential Land Prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 121-144, March.
    4. Nicolosi, Gina & Peng, Liang & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Do individual investors learn from their trading experience?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 317-336, May.
    5. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2009. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1187-1215, June.
    6. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & Xavier Gabaix & David Laibson, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life Cycle and Implications for Regulation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 51-117.
    7. Clapp, John M. & Nanda, Anupam & Ross, Stephen L., 2008. "Which school attributes matter? The influence of school district performance and demographic composition on property values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 451-466, March.
    8. Jaren C. Pope, 2008. "Do Seller Disclosures Affect Property Values? Buyer Information and the Hedonic Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 551-572.
    9. Balthrop, Andrew T. & Hawley, Zackary, 2017. "I can hear my neighbors' fracking: The effect of natural gas production on housing values in Tarrant County, TX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-362.
    10. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    11. Julia L. Hansen & Earl D. Benson & Daniel A. Hagen, 2006. "Environmental Hazards and Residential Property Values: Evidence from a Major Pipeline Event," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(4), pages 529-541.
    12. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2012. "Shale Gas Development and Property Values: Differences Across Drinking Water Sources," Working Papers 12-14, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    13. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Klaiber, H. Allen & Gopalakrishnan, Sathya, 2012. "The Impact of Shale Exploration on Housing Values in Pennsylvania," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124368, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Arithmetic Repeat Sales Price Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 971, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Laibson, David I. & Agarwal, Sumit & Driscoll, John C. & Gabaix, Xavier, 2009. "The Age of Reason: Financial Decisions over the Life-Cycle with Implications for Regulation," Scholarly Articles 4554335, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    17. Dean Gatzlaff & Kathleen McCullough & Lorilee Medders & Charles M. Nyce, 2018. "The Impact of Hurricane Mitigation Features and Inspection Information on House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 566-591, November.
    18. Kohlhase, Janet E., 1991. "The impact of toxic waste sites on housing values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26, July.
    19. Carolyn Kousky, 2010. "Learning from Extreme Events: Risk Perceptions after the Flood," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(3).
    20. Justin Gallagher, 2014. "Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 206-233, July.
    21. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-253, May.
    22. Pope, Jaren C., 2008. "Fear of crime and housing prices: Household reactions to sex offender registries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 601-614, November.
    23. Gina Nicolosi & Liang Peng & Ning Zhu, 2003. "Do Individual Investors Learn from Their Trading Experience?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm439, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
    24. Ryan M. Gallagher & Joseph Persky, 2020. "Heterogeneity of birth‐state effects on internal migration," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 517-537, June.
    25. Kiel Katherine A. & McClain Katherine T., 1995. "The Effect of an Incinerator Siting on Housing Appreciation Rates," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 311-323, May.
    26. Viscusi, W Kip, 1991. "Age Variations in Risk Perceptions and Smoking Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 577-588, November.
    27. Lucas W. Davis, 2004. "The Effect of Health Risk on Housing Values: Evidence from a Cancer Cluster," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1693-1704, December.
    28. Viscusi, W Kip & Hakes, Jahn K & Carlin, Alan, 1997. "Measures of Mortality Risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 213-233, May-June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Akshita Singh & Shailendra Kumar & Utkarsh Goel & Amar Johri, 2023. "Behavioural biases in real estate investment: a literature review and future research agenda," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    2. Steve Gibbons & Stephan Heblich & Esther Lho & Christopher Timmins, 2016. "Fear of Fracking? The Impact of the Shale Gas Exploration on House Prices in Britain," SERC Discussion Papers 0207, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Gibbons, Stephen & Heblich, Stephan & Timmins, Christopher, 2021. "Market tremors: Shale gas exploration, earthquakes, and their impact on house prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. McCoy, Shawn J. & Walsh, Randall P., 2018. "Wildfire risk, salience & housing demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 203-228.
    5. Guignet, Dennis & Jenkins, Robin R. & Nolte, Christoph & Belke, James, 2023. "The External Costs of Industrial Chemical Accidents: A Nationwide Property Value Study," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2015. "The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3633-3659, December.
    7. John Y. Campbell, 2016. "Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 1-30, May.
    8. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    9. Bishop, Kelly C. & Kuminoff, Nicolai V. & Mathes, Sophie M. & Murphy, Alvin D., 2024. "The marginal cost of mortality risk reduction: Evidence from housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Athanasios Votsis & Adriaan Perrels, 2016. "Housing Prices and the Public Disclosure of Flood Risk: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis in Finland," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 450-471, November.
    11. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    12. Yaoxuan Huang & Tsz Leung Yip & Cong Liang, 2020. "Risk Perception and Property Value: Evidence from Tianjin Port Explosion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Tang, Chuan & Czajkowski, Jeffrey & Heintzelman, Martin D. & Li, Minghao & Montgomery, Marilyn, 2020. "Rail accidents and property values in the era of unconventional energy production," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Walsh, Patrick & Mui, Preston, 2017. "Contaminated sites and information in hedonic models: An analysis of a NJ property disclosure law," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-14.
    15. Kim, GwanSeon & Schieffer, Jack & Mark, Tyler, 2020. "Do superfund sites affect local property values? Evidence from a spatial hedonic approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 15-28.
    16. Tanaka, Shinsuke & Zabel, Jeffrey, 2018. "Valuing nuclear energy risk: Evidence from the impact of the Fukushima crisis on U.S. house prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 411-426.
    17. Kim, GwanSeon & Schieffer, Jack & Mark, Tyler, 2016. "Do Superfund Sites Affect Local Property Values? Evidence from a Spatial Hedonic Approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235835, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Guignet, Dennis & Jenkins, Robin R. & Belke, James & Mason, Henry, 2023. "The property value impacts of industrial chemical accidents," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    20. Nilton Porto & J. Michael Collins, 2017. "The Role of Refund Expectations in Savings: Evidence from Volunteer Income Tax Preparation Programs in the United States," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 183-199, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:66:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11146-021-09844-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.