IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jrefec/v53y2016i4d10.1007_s11146-015-9530-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing Prices and the Public Disclosure of Flood Risk: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis in Finland

Author

Listed:
  • Athanasios Votsis

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute
    University of Helsinki)

  • Adriaan Perrels

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

Abstract

Information gaps and asymmetries are common in the housing market and this is frequently the case with the risks of natural processes, especially in coastal areas where the amenity dimension may dominate the risk aspect. Flood risk disclosure through maps is a policy instrument aimed at addressing this situation. We assess its effectiveness by identifying whether such maps induce a price differential for single family coastal dwellings in three Finnish cities, and by estimating the discount per square meter for various flooding probabilities (return times). The estimations indicate a significant price drop after the information disclosure for properties located in flood-prone areas as indicated by the maps. In the case of sea flooding information in Helsinki, the price effect is sensitive to the communicated probability of flooding. Overall, the discussed policy instrument appears to have functioned as intended, correcting information gaps and asymmetries related to flood risk. The identified effect is spatially selective; it caused a short-term localized shock in market prices in conjunction with some reorientation of demand from risky coastal properties towards ones that represent a similar level of coastal amenity, but are less risky in terms of flooding. This hints at the potential for incorporating the shocks associated with flood events or risk information into broader-scoped urban modelling and simulation. Similarly, the reasonable accuracy with which the housing market processes the additional information shows a potential for wider use of the disclosure of non-obvious risks in real estate markets. In the case of adapting to climate change risks, additional uncertainties may make the disclosure instrument less effective, if used as a single tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasios Votsis & Adriaan Perrels, 2016. "Housing Prices and the Public Disclosure of Flood Risk: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis in Finland," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 450-471, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:53:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-015-9530-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-015-9530-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11146-015-9530-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11146-015-9530-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dubin, Robin A, 1988. "Estimation of Regression Coefficients in the Presence of Spatially Autocorrelated Error Terms," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 466-474, August.
    2. Leggett, Christopher G. & Bockstael, Nancy E., 2000. "Evidence of the Effects of Water Quality on Residential Land Prices," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 121-144, March.
    3. Perrels, Adriaan & Veijalainen, Noora & Jylhä, Kirsti & Aaltonen, Juha & Molarius, Riitta & Porthin, Markus & Silander, Jari & Rosqvist, Tony & Tuovinen, Tarja, 2010. "The implications of climate change for extreme weather events and their socio-economic consequences in Finland," Research Reports 158, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Sheppard, Stephen, 1999. "Hedonic analysis of housing markets," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: P. C. Cheshire & E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 41, pages 1595-1635, Elsevier.
    5. Alan B. Krueger & David Card, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1397-1420, December.
    6. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    7. Brueckner, Jan K., 2011. "Lectures on Urban Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016362, December.
    8. Stephen Conroy & Jennifer Milosch, 2011. "An Estimation of the Coastal Premium for Residential Housing Prices in San Diego County," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 211-228, February.
    9. Pope, Jaren C., 2008. "Buyer information and the hedonic: The impact of a seller disclosure on the implicit price for airport noise," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 498-516, March.
    10. Huttunen, Kristiina & Pirttilä, Jukka & Uusitalo, Roope, 2013. "The employment effects of low-wage subsidies," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 49-60.
    11. Votsis, Athanasios, 2014. "Ecosystems and the spatial morphology of urban residential property value: a multi-scale examination in Finland," MPRA Paper 53742, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Daniel, Vanessa E. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 355-365, December.
    13. James P. Lesage, 2008. "An Introduction to Spatial Econometrics," Revue d'économie industrielle, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 19-44.
    14. Jaren C. Pope, 2008. "Do Seller Disclosures Affect Property Values? Buyer Information and the Hedonic Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 551-572.
    15. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Dan Andrews, 2011. "To Move or not to Move: What Drives Residential Mobility Rates in the OECD?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 846, OECD Publishing.
    16. Clifford W. Scherer & Hichang Cho, 2003. "A Social Network Contagion Theory of Risk Perception," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 261-267, April.
    17. Okmyung Bin & Jamie Brown Kruse & Craig E. Landry, 2008. "Flood Hazards, Insurance Rates, and Amenities: Evidence From the Coastal Housing Market," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 63-82, March.
    18. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Rosen, Sherwin, 1974. "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Pure Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(1), pages 34-55, Jan.-Feb..
    20. McCluskey, Jill J. & Rausser, Gordon C., 2003. "Hazardous waste sites and housing appreciation rates," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 166-176, March.
    21. David M. Harrison & Greg T. Smersh & Arthur L. Schwartz, Jr, 2001. "Environmental Determinants of Housing Prices: The Impact of Flood Zone Status," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1/2), pages 3-20.
    22. Okmyung Bin & Thomas W. Crawford & Jamie B. Kruse & Craig E. Landry, 2008. "Viewscapes and Flood Hazard: Coastal Housing Market Response to Amenities and Risk," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(3), pages 434-448.
    23. Ajita Atreya & Susana Ferreira & Warren Kriesel, 2013. "Forgetting the Flood? An Analysis of the Flood Risk Discount over Time," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 577-596.
    24. Kiel Katherine A. & McClain Katherine T., 1995. "The Effect of an Incinerator Siting on Housing Appreciation Rates," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 311-323, May.
    25. Bin, Okmyung & Landry, Craig E., 2013. "Changes in implicit flood risk premiums: Empirical evidence from the housing market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 361-376.
    26. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
    27. Okmyung Biny & Stephen Polasky, 2004. "Effects of Flood Hazards on Property Values: Evidence Before and After Hurricane Floyd," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(4).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Laura A. Bakkensen & Xiaozhou Ding & Lala Ma, 2019. "Flood Risk and Salience: New Evidence from the Sunshine State," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1132-1158, April.
    3. José Armando Cobián Álvarez & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2019. "The cost of floods in developing countries’ megacities: a hedonic price analysis of the Jakarta housing market, Indonesia," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 21(4), pages 555-577, October.
    4. Netusil, Noelwah R. & Moeltner, Klaus & Jarrad, Maya, 2019. "Floodplain designation and property sale prices in an urban watershed," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Georgic, Will & Klaiber, H. Allen, 2022. "Stocks, flows, and flood insurance: A nationwide analysis of the capitalized impact of annual premium discounts on housing values," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Justin Contat & Carrie Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2024. "When climate meets real estate: A survey of the literature," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 618-659, May.
    7. Lei Zhang & Tammy Leonard, 2019. "Flood Hazards Impact on Neighborhood House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 656-674, May.
    8. Seung Kyum Kim, 2020. "The Economic Effects of Climate Change Adaptation Measures: Evidence from Miami-Dade County and New York City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-86.
    10. Robert J. Johnston & Klaus Moeltner, 2019. "Special Flood Hazard Effects on Coastal and Interior Home Values: One Size Does Not Fit All," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(1), pages 181-210, September.
    11. Eunah Jung & Heeyeun Yoon, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalized into Real Estate Market Value? A Mahalanobis-Metric Matching Approach to the Housing Market in Gyeonggi, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Qiu, Yun & Gopalakrishnan, Sathya, 2018. "Shoreline defense against climate change and capitalized impact of beach nourishment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 134-147.
    13. Masako Ikefuji & Roger J. A. Laeven & Jan R. Magnus & Yuan Yue, 2022. "Earthquake Risk Embedded in Property Prices: Evidence From Five Japanese Cities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 117(537), pages 82-93, January.
    14. Coulson, N. Edward & McCoy, Shawn J. & McDonough, Ian K., 2020. "Economic diversification and the resiliency hypothesis: Evidence from the impact of natural disasters on regional housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    15. Daniel, Vanessa E. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M. & Rietveld, Piet, 2009. "Flooding risk and housing values: An economic assessment of environmental hazard," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 355-365, December.
    16. de Koning, Koen & Filatova, Tatiana & Bin, Okmyung, 2017. "Bridging the Gap Between Revealed and Stated Preferences in Flood-prone Housing Markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1-13.
    17. James R. Meldrum, 2016. "Floodplain Price Impacts by Property Type in Boulder County, Colorado: Condominiums Versus Standalone Properties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 725-750, August.
    18. Daniel R. Petrolia & Craig E. Landry & Keith H. Coble, 2013. "Risk Preferences, Risk Perceptions, and Flood Insurance," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(2), pages 227-245.
    19. Koen de Koning & Tatiana Filatova & Okmyung Bin, 2019. "Capitalization of Flood Insurance and Risk Perceptions in Housing Prices: An Empirical Agent‐Based Model Approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(4), pages 1159-1179, April.
    20. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:53:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-015-9530-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.