IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jre/issued/v9n41994p403-420.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database

Author

Abstract

This paper examines the magnitude of random disaggregate appraisal valuation error in institutional-grade commercial property. Unlike previous transactions-based studies of appraisal error, we use a much larger database that is not restricted to sold properties, and we employ a methodology that focuses on appraisal error rather than the difference between transaction price and previous appraised value. Our model gives a point estimate of 11.07% for the standard error of appraisals in the Russell-NCREIF database, with a robust range of 6% to 13%.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Geltner & Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1994. "Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 403-420.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:4:1994:p:403-420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol09n04/v09p403.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel C. Quan & John M. Quigley, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 218-230, June.
    2. Damodaran, Aswath & Liu, Crocker H, 1993. "Insider Trading as a Signal of Private Information," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 79-119.
    3. Kerry D. Vandell, 1991. "Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting in Real Property Valuation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 213-239, June.
    4. Fisher, Jeffrey D & Geltner, David M & Webb, R Brian, 1994. "Value Indices of Commercial Real Estate: A Comparison of Index Construction Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164, September.
    5. David Hartzell & John Hekman & Mike Miles, 1986. "Diversification Categories in Investment Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 230-254, June.
    6. James R. Follairi, 1989. "Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(2), pages 231-234, June.
    7. Ross, Stephen A & Zisler, Randall C, 1991. "Risk and Return in Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 175-190, June.
    8. Richard W. McEnally & Calvin M. Boardman, 1979. "Aspects Of Corporate Bond Portfolio Diversification," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 27-36, March.
    9. R. Brian Webb & Mike Miles & David Guilkey, 1992. "Transactions‐Driven Commercial Real Estate Returns: The Panacea to Asset Allocation Models?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 325-357, June.
    10. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal‐Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481, December.
    11. David J. Hartzell & David G. Shulma & Vice President, 1987. "Refining the Analysis of Regional Diversification for Income-Producing Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 85-95.
    12. Young, Michael S & Graff, Richard A, 1995. "Real Estate Is Not Normal: A Fresh Look at Real Estate Return Distributions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 225-259, May.
    13. Mike Miles & Rebel Cole & David Guilkey, 1990. "A Different Look at Commercial Real Estate Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 403-430, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2020. "Alternative Land‐Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(4), pages 784-824, December.
    2. W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The System of National Accounts and Alternative Approaches to the Construction of Commercial Property Price Indexes," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Property Price Index, chapter 0, pages 181-219, Springer.
    3. Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2007. "Pricing Structure in Tokyo Metropolitan Land Markets and its Structural Changes: Pre-bubble, Bubble, and Post-bubble Periods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 475-496, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Edelstein & Daniel Quan, 2006. "How Does Appraisal Smoothing Bias Real Estate Returns Measurement?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 41-60, February.
    2. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1993. "Smoothing Bias in In-House Appraisal-Based Returns of Open-End Real Estate Funds," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 157-170.
    3. Colin Lizieri & Charles Ward, 2000. "Commercial Real Estate Return Distributions: A Review Of Literature And Empirical Evidence," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2000-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    4. Dirk P.M. De Wit, 1997. "Real Estate Diversification Benefits," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(2), pages 117-136.
    5. David Geltner & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2003. "Appraisal Smoothing and Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(5-6), pages 1047-1064, May.
    6. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    7. K.W. Chau & Bryan D. MacGregor & Gregory M. Schwann, 2001. "Price discovery in the Hong Kong real estate market," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 187-216.
    8. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2003. "Asset allocation versus entrepreneurial decisions in real estate investment," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35582, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Allan Din & Martin Hoesli & Andre Bender, 2001. "Environmental Variables and Real Estate Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 38(11), pages 1989-2000, October.
    10. Jeff Fisher & David Geltner & Henry Pollakowski, 2007. "A Quarterly Transactions-based Index of Institutional Real Estate Investment Performance and Movements in Supply and Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-33, January.
    11. Leon Shilton, 2000. "Random Walks and the Cointegration of the ACLI and NCREIF," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 435-465.
    12. Deng, Yongheng & McMillen, Daniel P. & Sing, Tien Foo, 2014. "Matching indices for thinly-traded commercial real estate in Singapore," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 86-98.
    13. Jean‐Christophe Delfim & Martin Hoesli, 2021. "Robust desmoothed real estate returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 75-105, March.
    14. Patric H. Hendershott & Thomas G. Thibodeau & Halbert C. Smith, 2009. "Evolution of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association1," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 559-598, December.
    15. Jack H. Rubens & David A. Louton & Elizabeth J. Yobaccio, 1998. "Measuring the Significance of Diversification Gains," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(1), pages 73-86.
    16. Stuart Fletcher, 1993. "Portfolio Considerations in Commingled Real Estate Funds," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 171-188.
    17. Coën, Alain & Lefebvre, Benoit & Simon, Arnaud, 2018. "International money supply and real estate risk premium: The case of the London office market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 120-140.
    18. William G. Hardin, III & Marvin L. Wolverton, 1999. "Equity REIT Property Acquisitions: Do Apartment REITs Pay a Premium?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 113-126.
    19. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    20. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:9:n:4:1994:p:403-420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.aresnet.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.