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Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?

Author

Listed:
  • Jakob B. Madsen

    (University of Western Australia)

  • Md. Rabiul Islam

    (Monash University)

  • Xueli Tang

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

The fertility transition that took place in the West from approximately the 1870s to the 1970s is often suggested to have been instrumental for the shift from the post-Malthusian growth regime to the modern growth regime. Constructing a unique data set over the period 1820–2015 for 21 advanced countries, this paper tests whether fertility has had real economic effects through the channels of education, saving, investment and female labor force participation rates. The dairy-cereal price ratio and the pastoral-land ratio are used as instruments for fertility. The results indicate that the fertility transition has been a significant contributor to growth since the 1880s and, consequently, was pivotal for the transition to the modern growth regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakob B. Madsen & Md. Rabiul Islam & Xueli Tang, 2020. "Was the post-1870 fertility transition a key contributor to growth in the West in the twentieth century?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 431-454, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:25:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10887-020-09183-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10887-020-09183-6
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    2. Zhang, Qianxiao & Shah, Syed Ale Raza & Yang, Ling, 2022. "An Appreciated Response of Disaggregated Energies Consumption towards the Sustainable Growth: A debate on G-10 Economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
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    4. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.
    5. Muro, Kazunobu, 2022. "Physical and human capital, fertility, and childcare services," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 422-436.
    6. Francisco J. Marco-Gracia & Margarita López-Antón, 2021. "Rethinking the Fertility Transition in Rural Aragón (Spain) Using Height Data," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(16), pages 1-28, August.
    7. P. Niluka S. P. Ekanayake & Jakob B. Madsen & Tushar Bharati, 2023. "Trade and economic growth: Does the sophistication of traded goods matter?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 481-524, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The great fertility transition; Growth and fertility; Transmission channels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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