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The Role of Omitted Variables in Identifying a Long-run Equilibrium Relationship for the Italian Government Growth

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  • Gabriella Legrenzi
  • Costas Milas

Abstract

We discuss the role of omitted variables in the long run empirical modeling of the Italian government growth based on a Wagner's Law framework. We identify a non-spurious long-run relationship between general government expenditure and domestic product only when our Wagner's Law model is enhanced by a measure of bureaucratic power, as a supply-side variable, and by the ratio of local to state expenditure, as an institutional factor that captures the division of competencies between local and central government in allocating public expenditure. This result is independent from the Wagner's Law specification chosen. The persistence profile analysis shows a slow adjustment to equilibrium for the estimated government growth relationship following system-wide shocks, pointing to rigidities and complex functioning of the public sector. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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  • Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2002. "The Role of Omitted Variables in Identifying a Long-run Equilibrium Relationship for the Italian Government Growth," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 9(4), pages 435-449, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:9:y:2002:i:4:p:435-449
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1016568003489
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    1. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2002. "A Multivariate Approach to the Growth of Governments," Public Finance Review, , vol. 30(1), pages 56-76, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2010. "Spend-and-Tax Adjustments and the Sustainability of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2926, CESifo.
    2. Manuel Ja n-Garc a, 2017. "A Demand Determinants Model for Public Spending in Spain," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 372-386.
    3. Ludger Schuknecht & Holger Zemanek, 2018. "Social Dominance," Working Papers REM 2018/30, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Ludger Schuknecht & Holger Zemanek, 2021. "Public expenditures and the risk of social dominance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 95-120, July.
    5. Suzana Balaban & Dejan Živkov, 2021. "Validity of Wagner’s Law in Transition Economies: A Multivariate Approach," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 236(1), pages 105-131, March.
    6. Gabriella Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2006. "Asymmetric and Non-Linear Adjustments in Local Fiscal Policy," Keele Economics Research Papers KERP 2006/16, Centre for Economic Research, Keele University.
    7. Semedo, Gervasio, 2007. "L’évolution des dépenses publiques en France : loi de Wagner, cycle électoral et contrainte européenne de subsidiarité," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(2), pages 123-162, juin.
    8. Ciro Bazán & Víctor Josué Álvarez-Quiroz & Yennyfer Morales Olivares, 2022. "Wagner’s Law vs. Keynesian Hypothesis: Dynamic Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-25, August.

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