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L’évolution des dépenses publiques en France : loi de Wagner, cycle électoral et contrainte européenne de subsidiarité

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  • Semedo, Gervasio

    (Groupe d’études et de recherches sur la coopération internationale et européenne, Université de Tours)

Abstract

Adolph Wagner advances the idea that public expenditure follow the evolution of GDP. This long-run relationship, qualified as low, is not verified here in the case of France. Therefore, we include other variables and particularly political facts like electoral cycles and budgetary constraints imposed by the European Union, to explain the dynamic of public expenditure in France. The successive French governments followed for more than one quarter century the trend of last expenditure independently of their ideology and thus did not have goals of redistribution, but rather of optimal allowance of the resources, according to an international competitiveness objective. The electoral cycles did not mark significant differences between the conservative governments and the left ones. The revolution in the emission of the debt, the constitution of hard cores with privatization, the refusal of the monetary financing of the deficit contributed to this option supply side. La loi de Wagner avance l’idée de gouvernements dépensiers s’adaptant à la demande sociale ; les dépenses publiques suivent l’évolution du PIB et ne rencontrent pas de freins en période de récession. La vérification empirique du lien positif entre dépenses et PIB dans le cas de la France n’est pas validée. Les gouvernements successifs ont reconduit depuis plus d’un quart de siècle des dépenses passées, indépendamment de l’idéologie partisane avancée, et n’ont donc pas eu des logiques de redistribution mais plutôt d’allocation optimale des ressources au sens de la réduction globale des coûts de production avec comme objectif la compétitivité internationale. Les logiques de regroupement d’actionnariat éclaté et les privatisations ont concouru à cette option supply side et les cycles électoraux d’alternance politique n’ont pas marqué des différences significatives de comportements entre gouvernements de gauche et gouvernements de droite. De même, l’adhésion à l’Union européenne n’a pas de manière nette à court terme empêché des fluctuations de la dépense, non observées dans un raisonnement de long terme, mais la révolution dans l’émission de la dette, la constitution de noyaux durs, le refus du financement monétaire des déficits… constituent la lecture adéquate du lien peu robuste des dépenses publiques par rapport au PIB en France et laissent à penser, avec la loi de Wagner, que les gouvernements de la France n’ont pas eu comme préoccupation la défense d’un revenu moyen.

Suggested Citation

  • Semedo, Gervasio, 2007. "L’évolution des dépenses publiques en France : loi de Wagner, cycle électoral et contrainte européenne de subsidiarité," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(2), pages 123-162, juin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:83:y:2007:i:2:p:123-162
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