IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v37y2009i11p4397-4406.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Xiao-Bing
  • Fan, Ying
  • Wei, Yi-Ming

Abstract

China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently being prepared. But how large the optimal stockpile size for China should be, what the best acquisition strategies are, how to release the reserve if a disruption occurs, and other related issues still need to be studied in detail. In this paper, we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model based on a total potential cost function of establishing SPRs to evaluate the optimal SPR policy for China. Using this model, empirical results are presented for the optimal size of China's SPR and the best acquisition and drawdown strategies for a few specific cases. The results show that with comprehensive consideration, the optimal SPR size for China is around 320 million barrels. This size is equivalent to about 90 days of net oil import amount in 2006 and should be reached in the year 2017, three years earlier than the national goal, which implies that the need for China to fill the SPR is probably more pressing; the best stockpile release action in a disruption is related to the disruption levels and expected continuation probabilities. The information provided by the results will be useful for decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2009. "A model based on stochastic dynamic programming for determining China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4397-4406, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:11:p:4397-4406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(09)00401-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Samouilidis, JE & Berahas, SA, 1982. "A methodological approach to strategic petroleum reserves," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 565-574.
    2. Samouilidis, J. E. & Magirou, Vangelis F., 1985. "On the optimal level of a small country's strategic petroleum reserve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 190-197, May.
    3. Zweifel, Peter & Bonomo, Susanne, 1995. "Energy security Coping with multiple supply risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 179-183, July.
    4. Hogan William W., 1983. "Oil Stockpiling: Help Thy Neighbor," The Energy Journal, , vol. 4(3), pages 49-72, July.
    5. Wu, Gang & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1470-1478, April.
    6. Frederic H. Murphy & Michael A. Toman & Howard J. Weiss, 1987. "A Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of Consuming Nations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 484-499, April.
    7. Thomas J. Teisberg, 1981. "A Dynamic Programming Model of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 12(2), pages 526-546, Autumn.
    8. Wei, Yi-Ming & Wu, Gang & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui, 2008. "Empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 290-302, March.
    9. William W. Hogan, 1983. "Oil Stockpiling: Help Thy Neighbor," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 49-72.
    10. Shmuel S. Oren & Shao Hong Wan, 1986. "Optimal Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policies: A Steady State Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(1), pages 14-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Xiao-Bing, 2014. "Optimal strategic oil stockpiling and import tariffs: The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 463-474.
    2. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Qin, Ping & Chen, Xiaolan, 2017. "Strategic oil stockpiling for energy security: The case of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 253-260.
    3. Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Zheng, Xinye & Qin, Ping & Xie, Lunyu, 2018. "Oil import tariff game for energy security: The case of China and India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 255-262.
    4. Wu, Gang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Nielsen, Chris & Lu, Xi & McElroy, Michael B., 2012. "A dynamic programming model of China's strategic petroleum reserve: General strategy and the effect of emergencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1234-1243.
    5. Wu, Gang & Fan, Ying & Liu, Lan-Cui & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1470-1478, April.
    6. Bai, Y. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Zhang, L.B., 2012. "Optimal path for China's strategic petroleum reserve: A dynamic programming analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1058-1063.
    7. Fan, Ying & Zhang, Xiao-Bing, 2010. "Modelling the strategic petroleum reserves of China and India by a stochastic dynamic game," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 505-519, July.
    8. Jiao, Jian-Ling & Han, Kuang-Yi & Wu, Gang & Li, Lan-Lan & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "The effect of an SPR on the oil price in China: A system dynamics approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 363-373.
    9. Huanan Li & Xin Chen, 2016. "Dynamic game analysis on China’s public and private oil stockpiles," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 715-723, October.
    10. Bai, Y. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P., 2012. "Modelling and analysis of oil import tariff and stockpile policies for coping with supply disruptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 84-90.
    11. Xie, Nan & Yan, Zhijun & Zhou, Yi & Huang, Wenjun, 2017. "China's optimal stockpiling policies in the context of new oil price trend," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 332-340.
    12. Bai, Y. & Dahl, C.A. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P., 2014. "Stockpile strategy for China׳s emergency oil reserve: A dynamic programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 12-20.
    13. Chen, Xin & Mu, Hailin & Li, Huanan & Gui, Shusen, 2014. "Using stockpile delegation to improve China׳s strategic oil policy: A multi-dimension stochastic dynamic programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 28-42.
    14. Murphy, Frederic & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2013. "Pricing option contracts on the strategic petroleum reserve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-250.
    15. Bai, Yang & Dahl, Carol, 2018. "Evaluating the management of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve during oil disruptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 25-38.
    16. Ilyes Abid & Stéphane Goutte & Farid Mkaouar & Khaled Guesmi, 2019. "Optimal strategy between extraction and storage of crude oil," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 281(1), pages 3-26, October.
    17. Murphy, Frederic & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2010. "Developing a market-based approach to managing the US strategic petroleum reserve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 488-495, October.
    18. Bai, Yang & Zhou, Peng & Tian, Lixin & Meng, Fanyi, 2016. "Desirable Strategic Petroleum Reserves policies in response to supply uncertainty: A stochastic analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1523-1529.
    19. Xiaodong Guo & Chen Hao & Shuwen Niu, 2020. "Analysis of Oil Import Risk and Strategic Petroleum Reserve: The Case of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-20, May.
    20. AlKathiri, Nader & Atalla, Tarek N. & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel, 2020. "Optimal policies for managing oil revenue stabilization funds: An illustration using Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:11:p:4397-4406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.