IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/hcarem/v21y2018i4d10.1007_s10729-017-9413-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Zuraida Abal Abas

    (Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka)

  • Mohamad Raziff Ramli

    (Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka)

  • Mohamad Ishak Desa

    (Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka)

  • Nordin Saleh

    (Planning Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia)

  • Ainul Nadziha Hanafiah

    (Planning Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia)

  • Nuraini Aziz

    (Planning Division, Ministry of Health Malaysia)

  • Zaheera Zainal Abidin

    (Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka)

  • Abdul Samad Shibghatullah

    (Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka)

  • Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul Rahman

    (Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka)

  • Haslinda Musa

    (Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka)

Abstract

The paper aims to provide an insight into the significance of having a simulation model to forecast the supply of registered nurses for health workforce planning policy using System Dynamics. A model is highly in demand to predict the workforce demand for nurses in the future, which it supports for complete development of a needs-based nurse workforce projection using Malaysia as a case study. The supply model consists of three sub-models to forecast the number of registered nurses for the next 15 years: training model, population model and Full Time Equivalent (FTE) model. In fact, the training model is for predicting the number of newly registered nurses after training is completed. Furthermore, the population model is for indicating the number of registered nurses in the nation and the FTE model is useful for counting the number of registered nurses with direct patient care. Each model is described in detail with the logical connection and mathematical governing equation for accurate forecasting. The supply model is validated using error analysis approach in terms of the root mean square percent error and the Theil inequality statistics, which is mportant for evaluating the simulation results. Moreover, the output of simulation results provides a useful insight for policy makers as a what-if analysis is conducted. Some recommendations are proposed in order to deal with the nursing deficit. It must be noted that the results from the simulation model will be used for the next stage of the Needs-Based Nurse Workforce projection project. The impact of this study is that it provides the ability for greater planning and policy making with better predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuraida Abal Abas & Mohamad Raziff Ramli & Mohamad Ishak Desa & Nordin Saleh & Ainul Nadziha Hanafiah & Nuraini Aziz & Zaheera Zainal Abidin & Abdul Samad Shibghatullah & Ahmad Fadzli Nizam Abdul Rahm, 2018. "A supply model for nurse workforce projection in Malaysia," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 573-586, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:21:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10729-017-9413-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10729-017-9413-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10729-017-9413-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10729-017-9413-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Agrawal, Rashmi & Nanda, S.K. & Rao, D. Rama & Rao, B.V.L.N., 2013. "Integrated Approach to Human Resource Forecasting: An Exercise in Agricultural Sector," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(2).
    2. Tomblin Murphy, Gail & Kephart, George & Lethbridge, Lynn & O'Brien-Pallas, Linda & Birch, Stephen, 2009. "Planning for what? Challenging the assumptions of health human resources planning," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(2-3), pages 225-233, October.
    3. Tomoko Ono & Gaétan Lafortune & Michael Schoenstein, 2013. "Health Workforce Planning in OECD Countries: A Review of 26 Projection Models from 18 Countries," OECD Health Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    2. Mohammad Reza Davahli & Waldemar Karwowski & Redha Taiar, 2020. "A System Dynamics Simulation Applied to Healthcare: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Shaker Ardakani, Elham & Gilani Larimi, Niloofar & Oveysi Nejad, Maryam & Madani Hosseini, Mahsa & Zargoush, Manaf, 2023. "A resilient, robust transformation of healthcare systems to cope with COVID-19 through alternative resources," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. James Avoka Asamani & Christmal Dela Christmals & Gerda Marie Reitsma, 2021. "Advancing the Population Needs-Based Health Workforce Planning Methodology: A Simulation Tool for Country Application," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Stephen Birch, 2015. "Improving the Fiscal and Political Sustainability of Health Systems through Integrated Population Needs-Based Planning," Seminar Briefing 001616, Office of Health Economics.
    3. Zhenyu Sun & Ying Sun & Xueyi Liu & Yixue Tu & Shaofan Chen & Dongfu Qian, 2022. "A Refined Evaluation Analysis of Global Healthcare Accessibility Based on the Healthcare Accessibility Index Model and Coupling Coordination Degree Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Wende, Danny & Kopetsch, Thomas & Richter, Wolfram F., 2020. "Planning health care capacities with a gravity equation," Ruhr Economic Papers 888, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Katarzyna Dubas‐Jakóbczyk & Alicja Domagała & Marcin Mikos, 2019. "Impact of the doctor deficit on hospital management in Poland: A mixed‐method study," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 187-195, January.
    6. Yvonne Zurynski & Georgia Fisher & Shalini Wijekulasuriya & Elle Leask & Putu Novi Arfirsta Dharmayani & Louise A. Ellis & Carolynn L. Smith & Jeffrey Braithwaite, 2024. "Bolstering health systems to cope with the impacts of climate change events: A review of the evidence on workforce planning, upskilling, and capacity building," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 781-805, May.
    7. Anna-Theresa Renner & Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2020. "Modeling inter-regional patient mobility: Does distance go far enough?," Economics working papers 2020-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    8. Anderson, Michael & O'Neill, Ciaran & Macleod Clark, Jill & Street, Andrew & Woods, Michael & Johnston-Webber, Charlotte & Charlesworth, Anita & Whyte, Moira & Foster, Margaret & Majeed, Azeem & Pitch, 2021. "Securing a sustainable and fit-for-purpose UK health and care workforce," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110809, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Whittaker, William & Birch, Stephen & MacKenzie, Adrian & Murphy, Gail Tomblin, 2016. "Cohort effects on the need for health care and implications for health care planning in Canada," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 81-88.
    10. Sutton, Claire & Prowse, Julie & McVey, Lynn & Elshehaly, Mai & Neagu, Daniel & Montague, Jane & Alvarado, Natasha & Tissiman, Chris & O'Connell, Kate & Eyers, Emma & Faisal, Muhammad & Randell, Rebec, 2023. "Strategic workforce planning in health and social care – an international perspective: A scoping review," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    11. Mason, Thomas & Sutton, Matt & Whittaker, William & Birch, Stephen, 2015. "Exploring the limitations of age-based models for health care planning," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 11-19.
    12. Madhan Balasubramanian & Aliya Hasan & Suruchi Ganbavale & Anfal Alolayah & Jennifer Gallagher, 2021. "Planning the Future Oral Health Workforce: A Rapid Review of Supply, Demand and Need Models, Data Sources and Skill Mix Considerations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-33, March.
    13. Correia, Tiago & Dussault, Gilles & Pontes, Carla, 2015. "The impact of the financial crisis on human resources for health policies in three southern-Europe countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(12), pages 1600-1605.
    14. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & García-Rodríguez, Abián & Hill, Leonie, 2022. "Projections of workforce requirements for public acute hospitals in Ireland, 2019–2035: a regional analysis based on the hippocrates model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS147.
    15. Scheil-Adlung, Xenia., 2015. "Long-term care protection for older persons : a review of coverage deficits in 46 countries," ILO Working Papers 994886493402676, International Labour Organization.
    16. Domagała, Alicja & Klich, Jacek, 2018. "Planning of Polish physician workforce – Systemic inconsistencies, challenges and possible ways forward," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 102-108.
    17. Stephen Birch & Gail Tomblin Murphy & Adrian MacKenzie & William Whittaker & Thomas Mason, 2017. "Will the Need‐Based Planning of Health Human Resources Currently Undertaken in Several Countries Lead to Excess Supply and Inefficiency? A Comment on Basu and Pak," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 818-821, June.
    18. Chojnicki, Xavier & Moullan, Yasser, 2018. "Is there a ‘pig cycle’ in the labour supply of doctors? How training and immigration policies respond to physician shortages," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 227-237.
    19. Gamzu, Ronni & Kaidar, Nir & Afek, Arnon & Horev, Tuvia, 2016. "Physician density planning in a public healthcare system: Complexities, threats and opportunities—The case of the Israeli healthcare system," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(8), pages 920-927.
    20. Wende, Danny & Kopetsch, Thomas & Richter, Wolfram F., 2021. "A Demand-Oriented Approach to Health Care Capacity Planning," IZA Discussion Papers 14860, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:21:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10729-017-9413-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.