IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/enreec/v66y2017i1d10.1007_s10640-015-9922-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing the Assumptions and Predictions of the Hotelling Model

Author

Listed:
  • Calvin Atewamba

    (Institute for Natural Resources in Africa, United Nations University)

  • Bruno Nkuiya

    (Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara)

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically examine whether the assumptions and predictions of the Hotelling model are consistent with patterns observed in data. We consider nonlinear functional forms for the extraction cost and resource demand to develop an empirical Hotelling model with technological progress and stock dependent extraction costs. Using panel data on fourteen nonrenewable natural resources to estimate this empirical Hotelling model, we get qualitatively different results as compared to the related literature. We find evidence of stock-dependent extraction costs for most resources. There is no evidence against the linearity of the optimal extraction rate in the resource stock for almost all resources studied. Furthermore, the Hotelling model may sustain a zero long-run growth rate in resource prices. These results depend on whether firms use different extractive technologies or whether the structural break observed on resource prices is taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Calvin Atewamba & Bruno Nkuiya, 2017. "Testing the Assumptions and Predictions of the Hotelling Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(1), pages 169-203, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:66:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10640-015-9922-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-015-9922-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10640-015-9922-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10640-015-9922-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2004. "A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-411, February.
    2. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    3. Cairns, Robert D., 2014. "The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 78-85.
    4. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
    5. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 2001. "Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 683-734, May.
    7. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    8. Matyas,Laszlo (ed.), 1999. "Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521669672, January.
    9. John Livernois, 2009. "On the Empirical Significance of the Hotelling Rule," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 22-41, Winter.
    10. Donald W. K. Andrews & Ray C. Fair, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 55(4), pages 615-640.
    11. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    12. Matyas,Laszlo (ed.), 1999. "Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521660136, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Costello & Bruno Nkuiya & Nicolas Querou, 2017. "Extracting spatial resources under possible regime shift," Working Papers hal-01615939, HAL.
    2. Roberto Ferreira da Cunha & Antoine Missemer, 2020. "The Hotelling rule in non‐renewable resource economics: A reassessment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 800-820, May.
    3. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2018. "Understanding oil scarcity through drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 261-269.
    4. Gregor Schwerhoff & Ottmar Edenhofer & Marc Fleurbaey, 2020. "Taxation Of Economic Rents," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 398-423, April.
    5. Zeng, Yu & Wei, Xuan & Yao, Yuan & Xu, Yinliang & Sun, Hongbin & Kin Victor Chan, Wai & Feng, Wei, 2023. "Determining the pricing and deployment strategy for virtual power plants of peer-to-peer prosumers: A game-theoretic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 345(C).
    6. Youmanli Ouoba, 2023. "Testing the necessary conditions for sustainability in the mining sector in Burkina Faso," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(1), pages 1-12, January.
    7. Chuku, Chuku & Lang, Lin & Lim, King Yoong, 2023. "Public debt, Chinese loans and optimal exploration–extraction in Africa," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    8. Jiafeng Gu, 2021. "Determinants of biopharmaceutical R&D expenditures in China: the impact of spatiotemporal context," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6659-6680, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johnson Kakeu, 2023. "Concerns for Long-Run Risks and Natural Resource Policy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1051-1093, April.
    2. Johannes Pfeiffer, 2017. "Fossil Resources and Climate Change – The Green Paradox and Resource Market Power Revisited in General Equilibrium," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 77.
    3. Cuddington, John T. & Nülle, Grant, 2014. "Variable long-term trends in mineral prices: The ongoing tug-of-war between exploration, depletion, and technological change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 224-252.
    4. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    5. Bai, Yiyi & Okullo, Samuel J., 2018. "Understanding oil scarcity through drilling activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 261-269.
    6. Gregor Schwerhoff & Ottmar Edenhofer & Marc Fleurbaey, 2020. "Taxation Of Economic Rents," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 398-423, April.
    7. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    8. Jean-Pierre Amigues & Michel Moreaux & Nguyen Manh-Hung, 2019. "The Fossil Energy Interlude: Optimal Building, Maintaining and Scraping a Dedicated Capital, and the Hotelling Rule," Working Papers 2019.07, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    9. Atewamba, Calvin & Gaudet, Gérard, 2014. "Prices of durable nonrenewable natural resources under stochastic investment opportunities," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 528-541.
    10. Roberto Ferreira da Cunha & Antoine Missemer, 2020. "The Hotelling rule in non‐renewable resource economics: A reassessment," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(2), pages 800-820, May.
    11. Wang, Qiao & Balvers, Ronald, 2021. "Determinants and predictability of commodity producer returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Stuermer, Martin & Schwerhoff, Gregor, 2013. "Technological change in resource extraction and endogenous growth," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 12/2013, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    13. Orlov, Anton, 2016. "Effects of higher domestic gas prices in Russia on the European gas market: A game theoretical Hotelling model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 188-199.
    14. Nyambuu, Unurjargal & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Trends in the extraction of non-renewable resources: The case of fossil energy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 271-279.
    15. Gregor Schwerhoff & Martin Stuermer, 2015. "Non-renewable resources, extraction technology, and endogenous growth," Working Papers 1506, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Hart, Rob, 2012. "The economics of natural resources: Understanding and predicting the evolution of supply and demand," Working Paper Series 2012:01, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    17. Xiaoyi Mu and Haichun Ye, 2015. "Small Trends and Big Cycles in Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    18. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    19. Martin Stürmer & Gregor Schwerhoff, 2012. "Non-Renewable but Inexhaustible – Resources in an Endogenous Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_09, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    20. Mardones, Cristian & del Rio, Ricardo, 2019. "Correction of Chilean GDP for natural capital depreciation and environmental degradation caused by copper mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 143-152.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:66:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10640-015-9922-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.