IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/anr/reseco/v1y2009p239-259.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources

Author

Listed:
  • Margaret E. Slade
  • Henry Thille

    (Department of Economics, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z1, Canada
    Department of Economics, The University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1 Canada)

Abstract

We review the empirical literature that extends and tests the Hotelling model of the optimal depletion of an exhaustible resource. The theory is briefly described to set the stage for the review of empirical tests and applications. Those tests can be roughly divided into two broad categories—descriptive and structural—and we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each before presenting the empirical studies of optimal extraction under conditions of exhaustibility. We also discuss some econometric pitfalls that applied researchers face when attempting to test the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:1:y:2009:p:239-259
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.resource.050708.144223
    Download Restriction: Full text downloads are only available to subscribers. Visit the abstract page for more information.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daly, Herman E, 1974. "The Economics of the Steady State," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(2), pages 15-21, May.
    2. Richard J. Gilbert, 1978. "Dominant Firm Pricing Policy in a Market for an Exhaustible Resource," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 385-395, Autumn.
    3. James L. Sweeney, 1977. "Economics of Depletable Resources: Market Forces and Intertemporal Bias," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 44(1), pages 125-141.
    4. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    5. Richard J. Gilbert, 1979. "Optimal Depletion of an Uncertain Stock," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 46(1), pages 47-57.
    6. Berck, Peter & Roberts, Michael, 1996. "Natural Resource Prices: Will They Ever Turn Up?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 65-78, July.
    7. Farrow, Scott, 1985. "Testing the Efficiency of Extraction from a Stock Resource," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 452-487, June.
    8. Slade, Margaret E., 2001. "Valuing Managerial Flexibility: An Application of Real-Option Theory to Mining Investments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 193-233, March.
    9. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1975. "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 259-268, August.
    10. Stollery, Kenneth R., 1983. "Mineral depletion with cost as the extraction limit: A model applied to the behavior of prices in the nickel industry," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    12. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    13. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Monopoly and the Rate of Extraction of Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 655-661, September.
    14. Margaret E. Slade, 1984. "Tax Policy and the Supply of Exhaustible Resources: Theory and Practice," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 60(2), pages 133-147.
    15. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 1989. "Interest rates and metal price movements: Further evidence," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 184-192, March.
    16. Lee, Junsoo & List, John A. & Strazicich, Mark C., 2006. "Non-renewable resource prices: Deterministic or stochastic trends?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 354-370, May.
    17. Pierre Lasserre, 1985. "Discovery Costs as a Measure of Rent," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 474-483, August.
    18. Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
    19. Robert Halvorsen & Tim R. Smith, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 123-140.
    20. Robert D. Cairns & Graham A. Davis, 1998. "On Using Current Information To Value Hard-Rock Mineral Properties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 658-663, November.
    21. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    22. M.A. Adelman and G.C. Watkins, 2008. "Reserve Prices and Mineral Resource Theory," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-16.
    23. B. Moazzami & F. J. Anderson, 1994. "Modelling Natural Resource Scarcity Using the 'Error-Correction' Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 801-812, November.
    24. Young, Denise & Ryan, David L., 1996. "Empirical testing of a risk-adjusted Hotelling model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 265-289, October.
    25. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
    26. Geoffrey Heal & Michael Barrow, 1980. "The Relationship between Interest Rates and Metal Price Movements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 161-181.
    27. Johnson, Ronald N. & Libecap, Gary D., 1980. "Efficient markets and great lakes timber: A conservation issue reexamined," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 372-385, October.
    28. David Levhari & Robert S. Pindyck, 1981. "The Pricing of Durable Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 96(3), pages 365-377.
    29. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Fisher, Anthony C, 1982. "Exploration and Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1279-1290, December.
    30. Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-861, October.
    31. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
    32. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    33. Robert M. Solow & Frederic Y. Wan, 1976. "Extraction Costs in the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 359-370, Autumn.
    34. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-1225, December.
    35. Denise Young, 1992. "Cost Specification and Firm Behaviour in a Hotelling Model of Resource Extraction," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 41-59, February.
    36. Slade, Margaret E., 1982. "Trends in natural-resource commodity prices: An analysis of the time domain," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 122-137, June.
    37. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    38. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "The Pricing of Oil and Gas: Some Further Results," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1009-1018, July.
    39. Salant, Stephen W, 1976. "Exhaustible Resources and Industrial Structure: A Nash-Cournot Approach to the World Oil Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1079-1093, October.
    40. Stephen W. Salant, 1982. "Imperfect Competition in the International Energy Market: A Computerized Nash-Cournot Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 252-280, April.
    41. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal & Joseph E. Stiflitx, 1980. "The Taxation of Exhaustible Resources," NBER Working Papers 0436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    42. Smith, V. Kerry, 1978. "Measuring natural resource scarcity: Theory and practice," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 150-171, June.
    43. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 1997. "Hotelling Confronts CAPM: A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-708, August.
    44. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    45. Miller, Merton H & Upton, Charles W, 1985. "A Test of the Hotelling Valuation Principle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 1-25, February.
    46. Bresnahan, Timothy F & Suslow, Valerie Y, 1985. "Inventories as an Asset: The Volatility of Copper Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 409-424, June.
    47. Gregory M. Ellis & Robert Halvorsen, 2002. "Estimation of Market Power in a Nonrenewable Resource Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 883-899, August.
    48. Halvorsen, Robert & Smith, Tim R, 1984. "On Measuring Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 954-964, October.
    49. Robert S. Pindyck, 1977. "Cartel Pricing and the Structure of the World Bauxite Market," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 343-360, Autumn.
    50. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeffrey A. Krautkraemer, 1998. "Nonrenewable Resource Scarcity," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2065-2107, December.
    2. Gérard Gaudet, 2007. "Natural resource economics under the rule of Hotelling," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1033-1059, November.
    3. Kolstad, Charles D., 2000. "Energy and Depletable Resources: Economics and Policy, 1973-1998," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 282-305, May.
    4. Lin, C.Y. Cynthia, 2009. "An Empirical Dynamic Model of OPEC and Non-OPEC," Working Papers 225895, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Vicknair, David & Tansey, Michael & O'Brien, Thomas E., 2022. "Measuring fossil fuel reserves: A simulation and review of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    7. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    8. Cees Withagen, 1998. "Untested Hypotheses in Non-Renewable Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 623-634, April.
    9. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2001. "A Microeconometric Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 82-103, July.
    10. Chermak, Janie M. & Patrick, Robert H., 2002. "Comparing tests of the theory of exhaustible resources," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 301-325, November.
    11. Frechette, Darren L., 1999. "Scarcity rents and the returns to mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 39-49, March.
    12. Caputo, Michael R., 2011. "A nearly complete test of a capital accumulating, vertically integrated, nonrenewable resource extracting theory of a competitive firm," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, September.
    13. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
    14. L. Marsiliani & X. Liu & Л. Марсилиани & К. Лю, 2017. "Структура Акционерного Капитала И Степень Эксплуатации Нефтяных Месторождений // Share-Ownership Distribution And Extraction Rate Of Petroleum In Oil Fields," Review of Business and Economics Studies // Review of Business and Economics Studies, Финансовый Университет // Financial University, vol. 5(1), pages 42-53.
    15. Young, Denise & Ryan, David L., 1996. "Empirical testing of a risk-adjusted Hotelling model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 265-289, October.
    16. Robert Halvorsen & Tim R. Smith, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(1), pages 123-140.
    17. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    18. Slade, Margaret E., 2004. "Competing models of firm profitability," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 289-308, March.
    19. Considine, Timothy J. & Larson, Donald F., 2001. "Uncertainty and the convenience yield in crude oil price backwardations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 533-548, September.
    20. Jianzhong Xiao & Xiaolin Wang & Ran Wang, 2016. "Research on Factors Affecting the Optimal Exploitation of Natural Gas Resources in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-13, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hotelling model; optimal extraction; empirical tests; oil and gas; nonfuel minerals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • L72 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Other Nonrenewable Resources
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:1:y:2009:p:239-259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: http://www.annualreviews.org (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.annualreviews.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.