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The decline in investment shares is not caused by falling relative prices of capital: a note

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  • Leon Podkaminer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
    Bielsko-Biala School of Finance and Law)

Abstract

Secularly declining GDP investment shares are often explained by the widespread fall in the relative price of investment goods. Granger non-causality tests applied to longer-term time series for a large number of industrial countries tend to reject that explanation.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Podkaminer, 2019. "The decline in investment shares is not caused by falling relative prices of capital: a note," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 369-380, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:46:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-018-9401-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-018-9401-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
    2. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Richard Portes & Pau Rabanal, 2016. "Secular Stagnation, Growth, and Real Interest Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 575-580, November.
    3. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Robert J. Gordon, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: A Supply-Side View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 54-59, May.
    5. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    6. Gregory Thwaites, 2014. "Why are real interest rates so low? Secular stagnation and the relative price of investment goods," Discussion Papers 1428, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Robert E. Hall, 2017. "The Anatomy of Stagnation in a Modern Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(333), pages 1-15, January.
    8. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
    9. Leon Podkaminer, 2017. "Labour Productivity Growth Slowdown: An Effect of Economic Stagnation Rather than its Cause?," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 67(supplemen), pages 67-77, August.
    10. Canuto, Otaviano & Nallari, Raj & Griffith, Breda, 2014. "Sluggish Postcrisis Growth: Policies, Secular Stagnation, and Outlook," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 139, pages 1-10, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jagjit S. Chadha & Issam Samiri, 2022. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Working Papers 030, The Productivity Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Relative prices of capital; Investment shares; Secular stagnation; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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