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Secular Stagnation and Macroeconomic Policy

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  • Lawrence H. Summers

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

Secular stagnation theory has developed substantially recently and offers substantial insights that policymakers have yet to fully internalize. This paper reviews the considerations that led me to revive the secular stagnation idea, summarizes the theory as I understand it today, and argues that events since I started advocating the secular stagnation view have tended to confirm its predictions and reject those of its critics. It addresses the various objections, both theoretical and empirical, that have been put forward to the secular stagnation idea, and argues that if secular stagnation is a central macroeconomic issue, much of the conventional wisdom regarding macroeconomic policy needs to be rethought. Contrary to current orthodoxy, monetary policies may be able to have lasting impacts on levels of output but not to determine rates of inflation. Fiscal policies may be essential for assuring full employment and financial stability. Increases in government indebtedness may contribute to financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence H. Summers, 2018. "Secular Stagnation and Macroeconomic Policy," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(2), pages 226-250, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:66:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1057_s41308-018-0056-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-018-0056-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 2017. "Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?," NBER Working Papers 24179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Taner Akan & Aycan Hepsağ & Şeref Bozoklu, 2022. "Explaining U.S. economic growth performance by macroeconomic governance, 1952–2018," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1437-1465, November.
    3. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Unnatural Low Interest Rates: Secular Stagnation or Financial Repression?," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 70(2), pages 99-135, August.
    4. Nieto-Carrillo, Ernesto & Carreira, Carlos & Teixeira, Paulino, 2024. "Industrial dynamics in the ICT technological paradigm: The case of Portugal, 1986–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 155-170.
    5. Marvin Goodfriend & John McDermott, 2021. "The American System of economic growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 31-75, March.
    6. Ciaffi, Giovanna & Deleidi, Matteo & Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2024. "Stagnation despite ongoing innovation: Is R&D expenditure composition a missing link? An empirical analysis for the US (1948–2019)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    7. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    8. Pfeiffer, Philipp & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "Optimal fiscal policy with low interest rates for government debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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