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Optimal level of reserve holding: an empirical investigation in the case of Albania

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  • Shijaku, Gerti

Abstract

This discussion material analyses the change in international reserve holdings and their determinants, and evaluates their optimal level from a cost opportunity perspective. The material is based on the Buffer Stock model. This model assumes that reserve holdings are affected by changes of payments and receipts in the balance of payments. Reserves serve as a buffer stock to accommodate fluctuations of external transactions. The focus of the model is to estimate the optimal level of reserves against possible exogenous shocks or a crisis, particularly fluctuations of foreign capital inflows, mainly remittances. The volatility of reserve holdings is generated by Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) estimation, while the Buffer Stock model is estimated with an ARDL approach. Results indicate a negative relationship of reserve holdings with opportunity cost, volatility and deviation of exchange rate from the trend and positive relationship with imports. The approach estimation suggests that the level of optimal reserve holdings is more sensitive to precautionary rather than mercantilist motives.

Suggested Citation

  • Shijaku, Gerti, 2012. "Optimal level of reserve holding: an empirical investigation in the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shijaku, Gerti & Dushku, Elona, 2017. "Foreign reserve holdings: an extended study through risk-inspired motives," MPRA Paper 79199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Shijaku, Gerti, 2016. "Foreign currency lending in Albania," MPRA Paper 79087, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Reserve Holdings; Buffer Stock Model; EGARCH(p; q)-AR(q); ARDL Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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