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On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the U.S. Bilateral Trade with its 12 South American partners

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    (The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Augustine C. Arize

    (Texas A&M Univesity-Commerce
    College of Business)

  • Ebere Ume Kalu

    (University of Nigeria Nsukka, Enugu Campus)

Abstract

The new direction on the link between a measure of exchange rate volatility on trade flows is to estimate nonlinear models to determine if trade flows respond to exchange rate volatility in an asymmetric manner. In this paper we consider the U.S. trade flows with 12 South American partners. Estimates of traditional trade models revealed that only U.S. exports to Paraguay and Venezuela and its imports from Peru responds adversely to exchange rate volatility in the long run. However, estimates of nonlinear models predicted that U.S. exports to Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, and Venezuela, and its imports from Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, and Venezuela are affected asymmetrically. Clearly, the nonlinear approach yields relatively more significant outcomes than the linear approach and must be the norm for future research on the topic.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Augustine C. Arize & Ebere Ume Kalu, 2023. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the U.S. Bilateral Trade with its 12 South American partners," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 701-732, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:56:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10644-022-09443-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-022-09443-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "The Effects of Exchange-Rate Volatility on Commodity Trade between the United States and Mexico," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(4), pages 1019-1044, April.
    2. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2019. "Who is hurt by dollar-euro volatility in the euro zone?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 36-47.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2021. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of India with each of its fourteen partners," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 66-85, January.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Arize, A. C. & Malindretos, John & Grivoyannis, Elias C., 2005. "Inflation-rate volatility and money demand: Evidence from less developed countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 57-80.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    10. Baek, Jungho, 2020. "An asymmetric approach to the oil prices-trade balance nexus: New evidence from bilateral trade between Korea and her 14 trading partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 199-209.
    11. Mei-Se Chien & Nur Setyowati & Chih-Yang Cheng, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On Bilateral Trade Between Taiwan And Indonesia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(04), pages 857-888, June.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    13. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Igwe, Emmanuel U., 2017. "Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 313-326.
    14. Xu, Jia & Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2022. "On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate uncertainty on China’s bilateral trade with its major partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 653-669.
    15. Javed Iqbal & Sabahat Aziz & Misbah Nosheen, 2022. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on US–Pakistan trade flows: new evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 225-255, February.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Parveen Akhtar & Sana Ullah & Muhammad Tariq Majeed, 2020. "Exchange Rate Risk and Uncertainty and Trade Flows: Asymmetric Evidence from Asia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, June.
    17. Hajilee, Massomeh & Niroomand, Farhang, 2021. "Is there an asymmetric link between the shadow economy and the financial depth of emerging market economies?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    18. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ridha Nouira, 2020. "On the impact of exchange rate volatility on Tunisia’s trade with 16 partners: an asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 357-378, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate uncertainty; Trade; The U.S.; 12 South American partners; Asymmetric analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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