IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/decono/v167y2019i4d10.1007_s10645-019-09343-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Influence of the Strength of Financial Institutions and the Investment-Production Delay on Commodity Price Cycles: A Framed Field Experiment with Coffee Farmers in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Santiago Arango-Aramburo

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

  • Yuliana Acevedo

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

  • Joep Sonnemans

    (University of Amsterdam
    The Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

Commodity price cycles can arise when there is a tendency to invest more (less) when current prices are high (low). Traditionally this behavior is interpreted as based upon naïve expectations. However, weak financial institutions can also cause this behavior. When borrowing is hard and saving is risky farmers cannot invest in periods with low prices because their income is too low, while in periods with high prices they have few alternatives than to invest the surplus in their farm. In this paper, we present a framed field experiment to analyze how Colombian small-scale coffee farmers make investment decisions. We vary the strength of the financial institutions and the lag between investment and production. Overall there is a positive relation between prices and investment, and this relation becomes stronger when the financial institutions become weaker.

Suggested Citation

  • Santiago Arango-Aramburo & Yuliana Acevedo & Joep Sonnemans, 2019. "The Influence of the Strength of Financial Institutions and the Investment-Production Delay on Commodity Price Cycles: A Framed Field Experiment with Coffee Farmers in Colombia," De Economist, Springer, vol. 167(4), pages 347-358, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:167:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10645-019-09343-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10645-019-09343-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10645-019-09343-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10645-019-09343-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & Van De Velden, Henk, 2007. "Learning In Cobweb Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 8-33, November.
    2. Christian Erik Kampmann & John D. Sterman, 2014. "Do markets mitigate misperceptions of feedback?," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 30(3), pages 123-160, July.
    3. Mehta, A. & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the Coffee Crisis: What We Can Learn from Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201444, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Food System Research Group.
    4. Glenn W. Harrison & John A. List, 2004. "Field Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1009-1055, December.
    5. Mehta, Aashish & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the coffee crisis: What can we learn from price dynamics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 282-311, February.
    6. Akiyama, Takamasa & Baffes, John & Larson, Donald F. & Varangis, Panos, 2003. "Commodity market reform in Africa: some recent experience," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 83-115, March.
    7. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    8. Arango, Santiago & Castañeda, Jaime A. & Larsen, Erik R., 2013. "Mothballing in power markets: An experimental study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 125-134.
    9. Takamasa Akiyama & John Baffes & Donald Larson & Panos Varangis, 2001. "Commodity Market Reforms : Lessons of Two Decades," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13852.
    10. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    11. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Faris Alshubiri, 2021. "The stock market capitalisation and financial growth nexus: an empirical study of western European countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2021. "Are coffee farmers worse off in the long run?," 95th Annual Conference, March 29-30, 2021, Warwick, UK (Hybrid) 311084, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
    2. Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik, 2011. "Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2457-2466, May.
    3. Hernandez, Manuel & Lemma, Solomon & Rashid, Shahidur, 2015. "The Ethiopian Commodity Exchange and the coffee market: Are local prices more integrated to global markets?," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211732, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Subervie, Julie, 2011. "Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2239-2246, September.
    5. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Interacting cobweb markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 461-481, September.
    6. Álvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Larsen, Erik R., 2018. "Forward contracts in electricity markets and capacity investment: A simulation study," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-10.
    7. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
    8. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    9. Jun Lee & Miguel I. Gómez, 2013. "Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International-to-Retail Price Transmission," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 343-362, June.
    10. Hommes, Cars & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Individual Expectations And Aggregate Behavior In Learning-To-Forecast Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 373-401, March.
    11. Tuinstra, Jan & Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank, 2014. "Positive welfare effects of trade barriers in a dynamic partial equilibrium model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 246-264.
    12. Heemeijer, Peter & Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan, 2009. "Price stability and volatility in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1052-1072, May.
    13. Hidalgo, Francisco & Quiñones-Ruiz, Xiomara F. & Birkenberg, Athena & Daum, Thomas & Bosch, Christine & Hirsch, Patrick & Birner, Regina, 2023. "Digitalization, sustainability, and coffee. Opportunities and challenges for agricultural development," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    14. Atanu Ghoshray & Sushil Mohan, 2021. "Coffee price dynamics: an analysis of the retail-international price margin [Commodity dependence and development: suggestions to tackle the commodities problem]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(4), pages 983-1006.
    15. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    16. Aksoy, Ataman & Onal, Anil, 2011. "Consensus, institutions, and supply response : the political economy of agricultural reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5782, The World Bank.
    17. Atanu Ghoshray, 2010. "The Extent Of The World Coffee Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 97-107, January.
    18. Bao, Te & Duffy, John & Hommes, Cars, 2013. "Learning, forecasting and optimizing: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 186-204.
    19. John Duffy, 2008. "Macroeconomics: A Survey of Laboratory Research," Working Paper 334, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Jun 2014.
    20. Barbara Dluhosch, 2011. "European Economics at a Crossroads, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Richard P. F. Holt, and David Colander," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 629-631, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cobweb; Coffee planting; Framed field experiment; Financial institutions; Price cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:167:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s10645-019-09343-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.