Evolving Fuzzy-GARCH Approach for Financial Volatility Modeling and Forecasting
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s10614-015-9535-2
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Leandro Maciel & Fernando Gomide & Rosangela Ballini, 2014. "An Evolving Fuzzy-Garch Approach Forfinancial Volatility Modeling And Forecasting," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 138, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
References listed on IDEAS
- Bentes, Sónia R., 2015. "A comparative analysis of the predictive power of implied volatility indices and GARCH forecasted volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 424(C), pages 105-112.
- Haugom, Erik & Langeland, Henrik & Molnár, Peter & Westgaard, Sjur, 2014. "Forecasting volatility of the U.S. oil market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-14.
- Creal, Drew D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2015.
"Estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 60-81.
- Drew D. Creal & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2014. "Estimation of Affine Term Structure Models with Spanned or Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," NBER Working Papers 20115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2012.
"Effects of growth volatility on economic performance – Empirical evidence from Turkey,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 351-356.
- M. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer & Zafer Mustafaoglu, 2010. "Effects of Growth Volatility on Economic Performance: Empirical Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 528, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
- Charles, Amélie, 2010.
"The day-of-the-week effects on the volatility: The role of the asymmetry,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 143-152, April.
- Amélie Charles, 2010. "The day-of-the week effects on the volatility: The role of the asymmetry," Post-Print hal-00771136, HAL.
- Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "The role of FOMC minutes for US asset prices before and after the 2008 crisis: Evidence from GARCH volatility modeling," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 100-107.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993.
"On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014.
"CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing,"
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
- A. Mbairadjim Moussa & J. Sadefo Kamdem & A.F. Shapiro & M. Terraza, 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Post-Print hal-02901727, HAL.
- Leandro Maciel, 2013.
"A Hybrid Fuzzy GJR-GARCH Modeling Approach for Stock Market Volatility Forecasting,"
Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jonathan A. Batten & Peter MacKay & Niklas Wagner (ed.), Advances in Financial Risk Management, chapter 11, pages 253-283,
Palgrave Macmillan.
- Leandro Maciel, 2012. "A Hybrid Fuzzy GJR-GARCH Modeling Approach for Stock Market Volatility Forecasting," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 337-367.
- Ning, Cathy & Xu, Dinghai & Wirjanto, Tony S., 2015.
"Is volatility clustering of asset returns asymmetric?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 62-76.
- Cathy Ning & Dinghai Xu & Tony Wirjanto, 2014. "Is Volatility Clustering of Asset Returns Asymmetric?," Working Papers 050, Toronto Metropolitan University, Department of Economics.
- Seo, Sung Won & Kim, Jun Sik, 2015. "The information content of option-implied information for volatility forecasting with investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-120.
- Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2008.
"Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 275-292, October.
- Han, Heejoon & Park, Joon Y., 2006. "Time series properties of ARCH processes with persistent covariates," MPRA Paper 5199, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sohn, So Young & Lim, Michael, 2007. "Hierarchical forecasting based on AR-GARCH model in a coherent structure," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 1033-1040, January.
- Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
- Kung, Ling-Ming & Yu, Shang-Wu, 2008. "Prediction of index futures returns and the analysis of financial spillovers--A comparison between GARCH and the grey theorem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 186(3), pages 1184-1200, May.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Fernandes, Marcelo & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Scharth, Marcel, 2014.
"Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
- Marcelo Fernandes & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & MArcelo Scharth, 2007. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Textos para discussão 548, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Fernandes, Marcelo & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Scharth, Marcel, 2013. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Textos para discussão 342, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
- E. Brandão, Luiz & Dyer, James S. & Hahn, Warren J., 2012. "Volatility estimation for stochastic project value models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(3), pages 642-648.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Jean-Pierre Fouque & George Papanicolaou & K. Ronnie Sircar, 2000. "Mean-Reverting Stochastic Volatility," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(01), pages 101-142.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Venter, J.H. & de Jongh, P.J., 2014. "Extended stochastic volatility models incorporating realised measures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 687-707.
- Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2014. "Realized volatility transmission: The role of jumps and leverage effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 111-115.
- Hamid, Shaikh A. & Iqbal, Zahid, 2004. "Using neural networks for forecasting volatility of S&P 500 Index futures prices," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(10), pages 1116-1125, October.
- Li, Ting & Zhang, Weiguo & Xu, Weijun, 2015. "A fuzzy portfolio selection model with background risk," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 256(C), pages 505-513.
- Bellini, Fabio & Figa-Talamanca, Gianna, 2005. "Runs tests for assessing volatility forecastability in financial time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 102-114, May.
- Tseng, Chih-Hsiung & Cheng, Sheng-Tzong & Wang, Yi-Hsien & Peng, Jin-Tang, 2008. "Artificial neural network model of the hybrid EGARCH volatility of the Taiwan stock index option prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(13), pages 3192-3200.
- Lin, Edward M.H. & Chen, Cathy W.S. & Gerlach, Richard, 2012. "Forecasting volatility with asymmetric smooth transition dynamic range models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 384-399.
- Alex Huang, 2011. "Volatility Modeling by Asymmetrical Quadratic Effect with Diminishing Marginal Impact," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(3), pages 301-330, March.
- Behrooz Gharleghi & Abu Hassan Shaari & Najla Shafighi, 2014. "Predicting exchange rates using a novel “cointegration based neuro-fuzzy system”," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 88-103.
- Jonathan A. Batten & Peter MacKay & Niklas Wagner (ed.), 2013. "Advances in Financial Risk Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-02509-8, October.
- repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q1-137-6 is not listed on IDEAS
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Colubi, Ana & Ramos-Guajardo, Ana Belén, 2023. "Fuzzy sets and (fuzzy) random sets in Econometrics and Statistics," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 84-98.
- Andrea Bucci, 2020.
"Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 502-531.
- Andrea Bucci, 0. "Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 502-531.
- Bucci, Andrea, 2019. "Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 95443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Seyed Mehrzad Asaad Sajadi & Pouya Khodaee & Ehsan Hajizadeh & Sabri Farhadi & Sohaib Dastgoshade & Bo Du, 2022. "Deep Learning-Based Methods for Forecasting Brent Crude Oil Return Considering COVID-19 Pandemic Effect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-23, October.
- Branco, Rafael R. & Rubesam, Alexandre & Zevallos, Mauricio, 2024. "Forecasting realized volatility: Does anything beat linear models?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
- Das, Sudeepa & Sahu, Tirath Prasad & Janghel, Rekh Ram, 2022. "Oil and gold price prediction using optimized fuzzy inference system based extreme learning machine," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
- Ehsan Hajizadeh & Masoud Mahootchi, 2019. "Developing a Risk-Based Approach for American Basket Option Pricing," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 1593-1612, April.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Leandro Maciel, 2013.
"A Hybrid Fuzzy GJR-GARCH Modeling Approach for Stock Market Volatility Forecasting,"
Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jonathan A. Batten & Peter MacKay & Niklas Wagner (ed.), Advances in Financial Risk Management, chapter 11, pages 253-283,
Palgrave Macmillan.
- Leandro Maciel, 2012. "A Hybrid Fuzzy GJR-GARCH Modeling Approach for Stock Market Volatility Forecasting," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 337-367.
- Liu, Zhicao & Ye, Yong & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing, 2017. "Can economic policy uncertainty help to forecast the volatility: A multifractal perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 181-188.
- Pablo Cansado-Bravo & Carlos Rodríguez-Monroy, 2018. "Persistence of Oil Prices in Gas Import Prices and the Resilience of the Oil-Indexation Mechanism. The Case of Spanish Gas Import Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-17, December.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Li, Xiaolei, 2018. "The predictive content of CBOE crude oil volatility index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 837-850.
- Scharth, Marcel & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2009.
"Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 304-327.
- Marcel Scharth & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2006. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in the volatility of Dow Jones stocks," Textos para discussão 532, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Martin, Vance L. & Tang, Chrismin & Yao, Wenying, 2021. "Forecasting the volatility of asset returns: The informational gains from option prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 862-880.
- Peter Malec, 2016. "A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Chao Wang & Richard Gerlach, 2021. "A Bayesian realized threshold measurement GARCH framework for financial tail risk forecasting," Papers 2106.00288, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
- Catania, Leopoldo & Proietti, Tommaso, 2020.
"Forecasting volatility with time-varying leverage and volatility of volatility effects,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1301-1317.
- Leopoldo Catania & Tommaso Proietti, 2019. "Forecasting Volatility with Time-Varying Leverage and Volatility of Volatility Effects," CEIS Research Paper 450, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 06 Feb 2019.
- Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kambouroudis, Dimos S. & Tsakou, Katerina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2018.
"Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: The role of oil price shocks,"
Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 376-391.
- Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Dimos S. Kambouroudis & Katerina Tsakou & Dimitris S. Tsouknidis, 2018. "Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: the role of oil price shocks," Working Papers 2018-27, Swansea University, School of Management.
- Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2024. "Forecasting Daily Volatility of Stock Price Index Using Daily Returns and Realized Volatility," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 34-56.
- Geon Choe & Kyungsub Lee, 2014. "Conditional correlation in asset return and GARCH intensity model," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 98(3), pages 197-224, July.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013.
"Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps,"
Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sebastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Working Papers 2012-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
- repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
- Meddahi, Nour & Renault, Eric, 2004.
"Temporal aggregation of volatility models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 355-379, April.
- Nour Meddahi, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1903, Econometric Society.
- Nour Meddahi & Eric Renault, 2000. "Temporal Aggregation of Volatility Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-22, CIRANO.
- Francesco Audrino & Fabio Trojani, 2006.
"Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 345-369, April.
- Fabio Trojani & Francesco Audrino, 2006. "Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 345-369.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Yong Bao & Burak Saltoğlu, 2007. "Comparing density forecast models Previous versions of this paper have been circulated with the title, 'A Test for Density Forecast Comparison with Applications to Risk Management' since October 2003;," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 203-225.
- Raúl de Jesús Gutiérrez & Edgar Ortiz & Oswaldo García Salgado, 2017. "Los efectos de largo plazo de la asimetría y persistencia en la predicción de la volatilidad: evidencia para mercados accionarios de América Latina," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(4), pages 1063-1080, Octubre-D.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2018.
"Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF with VAR and Diagonal BEKK,"
JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, September.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Tai-Lin Hsieh & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF with VAR and Diagonal BEKK," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-26, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Chang, C-L. & Hsieh, T-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF with VAR and Diagonal BEKK," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-37, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
More about this item
Keywords
Evolving fuzzy systems; Volatility; Forecasting; Risk analysis; Finance;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:48:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-015-9535-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.