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Have large budget deficits caused increasing trade deficits? Evidence from a developing country

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  • G. Vamvoukas

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between budget and trade deficits on the basis of previous empirical work. Within the framework of cointegration analysis, error-correction modeling and Granger causality, the paper evaluates the validity of the Keynesian proposition (conventional view) and the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. The error-correction modeling approach supports the Keynesian proposition in the short and long run. The empirical evidence reveals one-way causality from budget deficit to trade deficit. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1997

Suggested Citation

  • G. Vamvoukas, 1997. "Have large budget deficits caused increasing trade deficits? Evidence from a developing country," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 80-90, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:25:y:1997:i:1:p:80-90
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298478
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stephen M. Miller & Frank S. Russek, 1989. "Are The Twin Deficits Really Related?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(4), pages 91-115, October.
    2. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-381, August.
    3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    4. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-190, March.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee, 1992. "What Are the Long-Run Determinants of the U.S. Trade Balance?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 85-97, September.
    6. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 2, pages 9-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. James G. MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    10. Michael M. Hutchison & Charles Pigott, 1984. "Budget deficits, exchange rates and the current account: theory and U. S. evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 5-25.
    11. David Alan Aschauer, 1986. "Fiscal policy and the trade deficit," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 10(May), pages 15-22.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2005. "How to cure the trade balance? Reducing budget deficits versus devaluations in the presence of J- and W-curves for Brazil," Research Memorandum 018, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Katrakilidis Constantinos & Trachanas Emmanouil, 2011. "Has the Accession of Greece in the EU Influenced the Dynamics of the Country’s “Twin Deficits”? An Empirical Investigation," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 45-54.
    3. Hsiao-chuan Chang, 2004. "Budget Balance And Trade Balance:Kin Or Strangers. A Case Study Of Taiwan," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 893, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    5. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    6. Puah, Chin-Hong & Lau, Evan & Tan, Kim Lee, 2006. "Budget-current account deficits nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 37677, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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