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Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks

Author

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  • Helena Chulia
  • Francisco Climent
  • Pilar Soriano
  • Hipolit Torro

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyse volatility transmission between the US and Eurozone stock markets considering the financial market responses to the September 11, March 11 and July 7 terrorist attacks. In order to do this, we use a multivariate GARCH model and take into account the asymmetric volatility phenomenon, the non-synchronous trading problem and the turmoil periods themselves. Moreover, a graphical analysis of the Asymmetric Volatility Impulse-Response Functions (AVIRF) is introduced, which takes into consideration the financial market responses to the terrorist attacks. Results suggest that there is bidirectional and asymmetric volatility transmission and show the different impacts that terrorist attacks had on both markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Helena Chulia & Francisco Climent & Pilar Soriano & Hipolit Torro, 2009. "Volatility transmission patterns and terrorist attacks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 607-619.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:9:y:2009:i:5:p:607-619
    DOI: 10.1080/14697680802637882
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    3. Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee & Pierdzioch, Christian & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do terror attacks predict gold returns? Evidence from a quantile-predictive-regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 276-284.
    4. Jalloul, Maya & Miescu, Mirela, 2023. "Equity market connectedness across regimes of geopolitical risks: Historical evidence and theory," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Mark Wohar, 2016. "Do Terror Attacks Affect the Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate? A Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Analysis," Working Papers 201615, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Mark E. Wohar, 2018. "Terror attacks and stock-market fluctuations: evidence based on a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test for the G7 countries," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 333-346, March.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Geopolitical risks and stock market dynamics of the BRICS," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 295-306.
    8. Kuzu, Erkan & Süsay, Aynur & Tanrıöven, Cihan, 2022. "A model study for calculation of the temperatures of major stock markets in the world with the quantum simulation and determination of the crisis periods," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    9. Nikos Nomikos & Enrique Salvador, 2014. "The role of volatility regimes on volatility transmission patterns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Alemany, Aida & Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2015. "Volatility spillovers in the European bank CDS market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 137-147.
    11. Villalba Padilla, Fátima Irina & Flores-Ortega, Miguel, 2014. "Análisis de la volatilidad del índice principal del mercado bursátil mexicano, del índice de riesgo país y de la mezcla mexicana de exportación mediante un modelo GARCH trivariado asimétrico || Volati," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 17(1), pages 3-22, June.
    12. Maya Jalloul & Mirela Miescu, 2021. "Equity Market Connectedness across Regimes of Geopolitical Risks," Working Papers 324219805, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    13. Tamara Marinicevaite & Jovita Razauskaite, 2015. "The Relevance Of Cboe Volatility Index To Stock Markets In Emerging Economies," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 6(1).
    14. Choi, Sun-Yong, 2022. "Evidence from a multiple and partial wavelet analysis on the impact of geopolitical concerns on stock markets in North-East Asian countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    15. Nicholas Apergis & Matteo Bonato & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Does Geopolitical Risks Predict Stock Returns and Volatility of Leading Defense Companies? Evidence from a Nonparametric Approach," Working Papers 201671, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility modelling; International finance; International asset pricing; GARCH models; Multivariate volatility; Risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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