IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/apfinm/v31y2024i1d10.1007_s10690-023-09411-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Volatility Connectedness and Spillover during Pandemic Induced-Crises: Evidence from BRICS Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Muntazir Hussain

    (Sohar University)

  • Usman Bashir

    (University of Bahrain)

  • Ramiz Ur Rehman

    (Sohar University)

Abstract

This paper investigated exchange rate and stock price volatility connectedness and spillover in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) during pandemic-induced crises. We first extracted volatility using the Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. Then volatility connectedness and spillover were investigated by using (Diebold and Yilmaz, International Journal of Forecasting, 28(1), 57–66, 2012) method. We find that exchange rate volatility and stock return volatilities are connected during pandemic-induced crises. The study also finds volatilities spillover among countries in the sample. Russia has strong volatility connectedness with India in these financial markets. The direction of volatility spillover is from Russia to India. Similarly, Brazil has strong volatility connectedness with South Africa and the direction volatility spillover is from Brazil to South Africa. Finally, China has a weak volatility connection with the remaining BRICS countries. Thus, the volatility transfer in these financial markets and across BRICS countries has economic implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Muntazir Hussain & Usman Bashir & Ramiz Ur Rehman, 2024. "Exchange Rate and Stock Prices Volatility Connectedness and Spillover during Pandemic Induced-Crises: Evidence from BRICS Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 183-203, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:31:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-023-09411-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-023-09411-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10690-023-09411-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10690-023-09411-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Inekwe, John Nkwoma, 2020. "Liquidity connectedness and output synchronisation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Kumar, Satish & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Chauhan, Yogesh & Ji, Qiang, 2019. "Dependence structure between the BRICS foreign exchange and stock markets using the dependence-switching copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-284.
    4. Umar, Zaghum & Gubareva, Mariya, 2021. "Faith-based investments and the Covid-19 pandemic: Analyzing equity volatility and media coverage time-frequency relations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805, Elsevier.
    6. Elgin, Ceyhun & Yalaman, Abdullah & Yasar, Sezer & Basbug, Gokce, 2021. "Economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of central bank independence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    7. Dobson, Wendy & Masson, Paul R., 2009. "Will the renminbi become a world currency?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 124-135, March.
    8. Akbar, Muhammad & Iqbal, Farhan & Noor, Farzana, 2019. "Bayesian analysis of dynamic linkages among gold price, stock prices, exchange rate and interest rate in Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 154-164.
    9. David Havrlant & Abdulelah Darandary & Abdelrahman Muhsen, 2021. "Early estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP: a case study of Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 1317-1325, March.
    10. Ismail O. Fasanya & Oluwatomisin Oyewole & Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Jones Odei-Mensah, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers and connectedness between COVID-19 pandemic and global foreign exchange markets," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 2059-2084, January.
    11. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Zhuo Huang, 2016. "Exponential GARCH Modeling With Realized Measures of Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 269-287, April.
    12. Ortmann, Regina & Pelster, Matthias & Wengerek, Sascha Tobias, 2020. "COVID-19 and investor behavior," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    13. Smita Mahapatra & Saumitra N. Bhaduri, 2019. "Dynamics of the impact of currency fluctuations on stock markets in India: Assessing the pricing of exchange rate risks," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 19(1), pages 15-23, March.
    14. Nupur Moni Das & Bhabani Sankar Rout & Yashmin Khatun, 2023. "Does G7 Engross the Shock of COVID 19: An Assessment with Market Volatility?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(4), pages 795-816, December.
    15. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    16. Carter, David & Mazumder, Sharif & Simkins, Betty & Sisneros, Eric, 2022. "The stock price reaction of the COVID-19 pandemic on the airline, hotel, and tourism industries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    17. Pentecost, Eric J & Moore, Tomoe, 2006. "Financial Liberalization in India and a New Test of the Complementarity Hypothesis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 487-502, January.
    18. Truong, Dothang & Truong, My D., 2022. "How do customers change their purchasing behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Nader Trabelsi, 2019. "Dynamic and frequency connectedness across Islamic stock indexes, bonds, crude oil and gold," International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 306-321, June.
    20. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    21. Baek, Seungho & Mohanty, Sunil K. & Glambosky, Mina, 2020. "COVID-19 and stock market volatility: An industry level analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    22. Meyer, Brent H. & Prescott, Brian & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2022. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 529-544.
    23. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    24. Ngo Thai Hung, 2021. "Directional Spillover Effects Between BRICS Stock Markets and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 429-448, September.
    25. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Mensi, Walid & Anik, Kaysul Islam & Rahman, Mishkatur & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "The impacts of COVID-19 crisis on spillovers between the oil and stock markets: Evidence from the largest oil importers and exporters," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 345-372.
    26. A. E. Abramov & A. D. Radygin & M. I. Chernova, 2021. "Russian stock market: Trends, challenges and solutions. Academic view," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 11.
    27. Huang, Qian & Wang, Xiangning & Zhang, Shuguang, 2021. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    28. Tsai, I-Chun, 2012. "The relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in Asian markets: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 609-621.
    29. Oluwatosin Adeniyi & Terver Kumeka, 2020. "Exchange Rate and Stock Prices in Nigeria: Firm-Level Evidence," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 235-263, June.
    30. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    31. Muneer Shaik & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2023. "The Dynamic Volatility Connectedness of Major Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Stock Indices: Evidence Based on DCC-GARCH Model," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 231-246, March.
    32. Mahdi Ghodsi, 2020. "The impact of Chinese technical barriers to trade on its manufacturing imports when exporters are heterogeneous," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1667-1698, October.
    33. Umaid A. Sheikh & Muzaffar Asad & Zahid Ahmed & Umer Mukhtar & David McMillan, 2020. "Asymmetrical relationship between oil prices, gold prices, exchange rate, and stock prices during global financial crisis 2008: Evidence from Pakistan," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1757802-175, January.
    34. Ali Ataullah & Tony Cockerill & Hang Le, 2004. "Financial liberalization and bank efficiency: a comparative analysis of India and Pakistan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(17), pages 1915-1924.
    35. Tule, Moses & Dogo, Mela & Uzonwanne, Godfrey, 2018. "Volatility of stock market returns and the naira exchange rate," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 97-105.
    36. Athanasios Koulakiotis & Apostolis Kiohos & Vassilios Babalos, 2015. "Exploring the interaction between stock price index and exchange rates: an asymmetric threshold approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 1273-1285, March.
    37. Xiaohua Bao & Larry D. Qiu, 2010. "Do Technical Barriers to Trade Promote or Restrict Trade? Evidence from China," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 253-278.
    38. Muntazir Hussain & Usman Bashir, 2019. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Bank Lending: Does Market Structure Matter?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 620-648, October.
    39. Sikhosana, Ayanda & Aye, Goodness C., 2018. "Asymmetric volatility transmission between the real exchange rate and stock returns in South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-8.
    40. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
    41. Ngo Thai Hung, 2021. "Financial connectedness of GCC emerging stock markets," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(4), pages 753-773, December.
    42. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Mensi, Walid & Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad Wanas & Hamdi, Atef & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "Volatility forecasting, downside risk, and diversification benefits of Bitcoin and oil and international commodity markets: A comparative analysis with yellow metal," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 104-120.
    43. Ülkü, Numan & Demirci, Ebru, 2012. "Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-86.
    44. Berzanna Seydou Ouattara, 2017. "Re-Examining Stock Market Integration Among Brics Countries," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(3), pages 109-132.
    45. Li, Yanshuang & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian & Dong, Zibing, 2021. "Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on G20 stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ogunsanya, Ibukun & Wasiu Adamson, Temitope, 2024. "Exchange Rate Movement And Stock Returns In Most Capitalised Economies In Sub-Saharan Africa," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 11(1), pages 18-37, June.
    2. Afees A. Salisu & Kazeem Isah & Nnenna Ogbonnaya‐Orji, 2022. "A firm level analysis of asymmetric response of U.S. stock returns to exchange rate movements," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1220-1239, January.
    3. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Huang, Qian & Wang, Xiangning & Zhang, Shuguang, 2021. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Umar, Zaghum & Mokni, Khaled & Escribano, Ana, 2022. "Connectedness between the COVID-19 related media coverage and Islamic equities: The role of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Sokhanvar, Amin & Çiftçioğlu, Serhan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2024. "Comparative analysis of the exchange rates-stock returns nexus in commodity-exporters and -importers before and during the war in Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    7. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Xiong, Xiong & Yi, Shangkun, 2024. "Time-frequency extreme risk spillovers between COVID-19 news-based panic sentiment and stock market volatility in the multi-layer network: Evidence from the RCEP countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Aziz, Saqib & Tawil, Dima, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 induced panic on the return and volatility of precious metals," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    11. Wong, Hock Tsen, 2017. "Real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 340-352.
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    13. Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie & Abuzayed, Bana, 2023. "Decomposed oil price shocks and GCC stock market sector returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    14. Ali, Shoaib & Naveed, Muhammad & Hanif, Hasan & Gubareva, Mariya, 2024. "The resilience of Shariah-compliant investments: Probing the static and dynamic connectedness between gold-backed cryptocurrencies and GCC equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Hock Tsen Wong, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Returns And Real Stock Price Returns In The Stock Market Of Malaysia," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(05), pages 1319-1349, December.
    16. Salisu, Afees A., 2019. "United we stand, divided we fall: A PANICCA test evidence for stock exchanges in OECD," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 343-347.
    17. Alovokpinhou, Sedjro Aaron & Malikane, Christopher, 2024. "The effect of output and the real exchange rate on equity price dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Li, Yanshuang & Shi, Yujie & Shi, Yongdong & Yi, Shangkun & Zhang, Weiping, 2023. "COVID-19 vaccinations and risk spillovers: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Wang, Xiangning & Huang, Qian & Zhang, Shuguang, 2023. "Effects of macroeconomic factors on stock prices for BRICS using the variational mode decomposition and quantile method," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Abrar, Afsheen & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Karim, Sitara & Lucey, Brian M. & Vigne, Samuel A., 2024. "Shining in or fading out: Do precious metals sparkle for cryptocurrencies?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:31:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-023-09411-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.