IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v465y2017icp338-346.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hussain, Muntazir
  • Zebende, Gilney Figueira
  • Bashir, Usman
  • Donghong, Ding

Abstract

Most empirical literature investigates the relation between oil prices and exchange rate through different models. These models measure this relationship on two time scales (long and short terms), and often fail to observe the co-movement of these variables at different time scales. We apply a detrended cross-correlation approach (DCCA) to investigate the co-movements of the oil price and exchange rate in 12 Asian countries. This model determines the co-movements of oil price and exchange rate at different time scale. The exchange rate and oil price time series indicate unit root problem. Their correlation and cross-correlation are very difficult to measure. The result becomes spurious when periodic trend or unit root problem occurs in these time series. This approach measures the possible cross-correlation at different time scale and controlling the unit root problem. Our empirical results support the co-movements of oil prices and exchange rate. Our results support a weak negative cross-correlation between oil price and exchange rate for most Asian countries included in our sample. The results have important monetary, fiscal, inflationary, and trade policy implications for these countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Bashir, Usman & Donghong, Ding, 2017. "Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 338-346.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:465:y:2017:i:c:p:338-346
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.08.056
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116305738
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2016.08.056?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    2. Yin, Yi & Shang, Pengjian, 2013. "Modified DFA and DCCA approach for quantifying the multiscale correlation structure of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6442-6457.
    3. Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets: Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock," IMF Working Papers 2006/062, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Beine, Michel, 2004. "Conditional covariances and direct central bank interventions in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1385-1411, June.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    6. Marimoutou, Velayoudoum & Raggad, Bechir & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2009. "Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 519-530, July.
    7. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2010. "Oil price dynamics and speculation: A multivariate financial approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 363-372, March.
    8. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    9. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "Oil prices and Spanish competitiveness: A cointegrated panel analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 591-605, October.
    10. Sadeghi, Mehdi & Shavvalpour, Saeed, 2006. "Energy risk management and value at risk modeling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3367-3373, December.
    11. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2686-2696, September.
    13. S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 1(Oct), pages 21-38.
    14. Ibrahim Turhan & Erk Hacihasanoglu & Ugur Soytas, 2013. "Oil Prices and Emerging Market Exchange Rates," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S1), pages 21-36, January.
    15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    16. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    17. Q. Farooq Akram, 2004. "Oil prices and exchange rates: Norwegian evidence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 476-504, December.
    18. Zebende, G.F. & da Silva, M.F. & Machado Filho, A., 2013. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient differentiation: Theoretical and practical approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1756-1761.
    19. Aloui, Riadh & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "Conditional dependence structure between oil prices and exchange rates: A copula-GARCH approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 719-738.
    20. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2007. "The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-416.
    21. Zebende, G.F., 2011. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: Quantifying level of cross-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 614-618.
    22. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
    23. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
    24. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    25. Ghosh, Sajal, 2011. "Examining crude oil price - Exchange rate nexus for India during the period of extreme oil price volatility," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1886-1889, May.
    26. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    2. Jiang, Jiaqi & Gu, Rongbao, 2016. "Asymmetrical long-run dependence between oil price and US dollar exchange rate—Based on structural oil shocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 456(C), pages 75-89.
    3. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Lucey, Brian, 2020. "How do dynamic responses of exchange rates to oil price shocks co-move? From a time-varying perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Wei Qiang & Aimei Lin & Chao Zhao & Zhenhua Liu & Manzhi Liu & Xiaozhen Wang, 2019. "The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 227-239, January.
    5. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mohammad Iqbal Tahir, 2015. "Analyzing time-frequency relationship between oil price and exchange rate in Pakistan through wavelets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 690-704, April.
    7. Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between oil and USD exchange rates: Evidence from a regime-switching-quantile regression approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
    9. Chen, Hongtao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Zhu, Yingming, 2016. "Oil price shocks and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1036-1048.
    10. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019. "Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.
    12. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
    13. Khalid M. Kisswani & Arezou Harraf & Amjad M. Kisswani, 2019. "Revisiting the effects of oil prices on exchange rate: asymmetric evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 279-300, August.
    14. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2016. "Oil price and exchange rate in India: Fresh evidence from continuous wavelet approach and asymmetric, multi-horizon Granger-causality tests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 272-283.
    15. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2023. "Cross-spectral coherence and co-movement between WTI oil price and exchange rate of Thai Baht," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Khalid M. Kisswani, 2016. "Does oil price variability affect ASEAN exchange rates? Evidence from panel cointegration test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(20), pages 1831-1839, April.
    17. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 140-152.
    18. Baghestani, Hamid & Chazi, Abdelaziz & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2019. "A directional analysis of oil prices and real exchange rates in BRIC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 450-456.
    19. Bing‐Yue Liu & Qiang Ji & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ying Fan, 2021. "Dynamic dependence and extreme risk comovement: The case of oil prices and exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2612-2636, April.
    20. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Oil price and US dollar exchange rate: Change detection of bi-directional causal impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:465:y:2017:i:c:p:338-346. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.