IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v515y2019icp151-158.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Differential market reactions to pre and post Brexit referendum

Author

Listed:
  • Bashir, Usman
  • Zebende, Gilney Figueira
  • Yu, Yugang
  • Hussain, Muntazir
  • Ali, Ahmed
  • Abbas, Ghulam

Abstract

The United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union on 23 June 2016, which led to a notable shift in the financial markets. This study investigates the dynamic linkages between stock price and exchange rate for the UK and four other EU countries, considering the periods before and after the Brexit referendum. We applied the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and the detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρDCCA, to investigate the influence of Brexit referendum event to provide fresh evidence of co-movements among the European financial markets. In this case we found positive and negative co-movements in UK and EU financial markets demonstrating a different pattern for these two periods. ρDCCA findings suggest that most of the European financial markets tend to be negatively correlated in the long term after the Brexit referendum.

Suggested Citation

  • Bashir, Usman & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Ali, Ahmed & Abbas, Ghulam, 2019. "Differential market reactions to pre and post Brexit referendum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 151-158.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:515:y:2019:i:c:p:151-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.09.182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118313128
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.09.182?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dhingra, Swati & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P. & Sampson, Thomas & Reenen, John Van, 2016. "The consequences of Brexit for UK trade and living standards," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66144, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Ratner, Mitchell, 1993. "A cointegration test of the impact of foreign exchange rates on U.S. stock market prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 93-101.
    3. Guedes, E.F. & Brito, A.A. & Oliveira Filho, F.M. & Fernandez, B.F. & de Castro, A.P.N. & da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F., 2018. "Statistical test for ΔρDCCA cross-correlation coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 501(C), pages 134-140.
    4. Bashir, Usman & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney F., 2016. "Do foreign exchange and equity markets co-move in Latin American region? Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 889-897.
    5. Schiereck, D. & Kiesel, F. & Kolaric, S., 2016. "Brexit: (Not) another Lehman moment for banks?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 82881, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    6. Adesina, Tola, 2017. "Estimating volatility persistence under a Brexit-vote structural break," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 65-68.
    7. Oehler, Andreas & Horn, Matthias & Wendt, Stefan, 2017. "Brexit: Short-term stock price effects and the impact of firm-level internationalization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 175-181.
    8. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    9. Dopke, Jorg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Politics and the stock market: Evidence from Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 925-943, December.
    10. Athanasios Koulakiotis & Apostolis Kiohos & Vassilios Babalos, 2015. "Exploring the interaction between stock price index and exchange rates: an asymmetric threshold approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 1273-1285, March.
    11. B. Podobnik & I. Grosse & D. Horvatić & S. Ilic & P. Ch. Ivanov & H. E. Stanley, 2009. "Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 243-250, September.
    12. Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Bashir, Usman & Donghong, Ding, 2017. "Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 338-346.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1987. "Monetary and Portfolio Balance Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Economics Working Papers 8752, University of California at Berkeley.
    14. Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Zebende, Gilney F., 2014. "Oil and US dollar exchange rate dependence: A detrended cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-139.
    15. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    16. William H. Branson, 1981. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
    18. Zebende, G.F., 2011. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: Quantifying level of cross-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 614-618.
    19. Schiereck, Dirk & Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha, 2016. "Brexit: (Not) another Lehman moment for banks?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 291-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ferreira, Paulo & Pereira, Éder & Silva, Marcus, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    2. Galán-Gutiérrez, Juan Antonio & Martín-García, Rodrigo, 2021. "Cointegration between the structure of copper futures prices and Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2020. "Uncovered interest rate parity through the lens of fractal methods: Evidence from the European Union," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 553(C).
    4. Husain, Afzol & Karim, Sitara & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2024. "Financial fusion: Bridging Islamic and Green investments in the European stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Guglielmo D'Amico & Filippo Petroni & Philippe Regnault & Stefania Scocchera & Loriano Storchi, 2019. "A copula based Markov Reward approach to the credit spread in European Union," Papers 1902.00691, arXiv.org.
    6. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2021. "External Shocks and Volatility Overflow among the Exchange Rate of the Yen, Nikkei, TOPIX and Sectoral Stock Indices," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-13, November.
    7. Mohti, Wahbeeah & Dionísio, Andreia & Vieira, Isabel & Ferreira, Paulo, 2019. "Financial contagion analysis in frontier markets: Evidence from the US subprime and the Eurozone debt crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 1388-1398.
    8. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Hedging UK stock portfolios with gold and oil: The impact of Brexit," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2020. "The Impacts of International Political and Economic Events on Japanese Financial Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-10, July.
    10. Zebende, G.F. & Brito, A.A. & Castro, A.P., 2020. "DCCA cross-correlation analysis in time-series with removed parts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    11. Ferreira, Paulo & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Pereira, Eder Johnson de Area Leão, 2020. "DCCA and DMCA correlations of cryptocurrency markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    12. Thiago B. Murari & Aloisio S. Nascimento Filho & Eder J.A.L. Pereira & Paulo Ferreira & Sergio Pitombo & Hernane B.B. Pereira & Alex A.B. Santos & Marcelo A. Moret, 2019. "Comparative Analysis between Hydrous Ethanol and Gasoline C Pricing in Brazilian Retail Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-12, August.
    13. Ji, Qiangbiao & Zhang, Xin & Zhu, Yingming, 2020. "Multifractal analysis of the impact of US–China trade friction on US and China soy futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 542(C).
    14. Oliveira Filho, F.M. & Leyva Cruz, J.A. & Zebende, G.F., 2019. "Analysis of the EEG bio-signals during the reading task by DFA method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 664-671.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bashir, Usman & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney F., 2016. "Do foreign exchange and equity markets co-move in Latin American region? Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 889-897.
    2. Ferreira, Paulo & Pereira, Éder Johson de Area Leão & Silva, Marcus Fernandes da & Pereira, Hernane Borges, 2019. "Detrended correlation coefficients between oil and stock markets: The effect of the 2008 crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 86-96.
    3. Dao, Thong M. & McGroarty, Frank & Urquhart, Andrew, 2019. "The Brexit vote and currency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 153-164.
    4. Zebende, G.F. & Brito, A.A. & Castro, A.P., 2020. "DCCA cross-correlation analysis in time-series with removed parts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    5. da Silva, L.S. Almeida & Guedes, E.F. & Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2019. "ρx,y between open-close stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    6. Guedes, E.F. & Ferreira, Paulo & Dionísio, Andreia & Zebende, G.F., 2019. "An econophysics approach to study the effect of BREXIT referendum on European Union stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 1175-1182.
    7. Mohti, Wahbeeah & Dionísio, Andreia & Vieira, Isabel & Ferreira, Paulo, 2019. "Financial contagion analysis in frontier markets: Evidence from the US subprime and the Eurozone debt crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 1388-1398.
    8. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Cryptocurrency spectrum and 2020 pandemic: Contagion analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 29-38.
    9. Zhang, Yaozhong & Wu, Junfeng & Zhang, Chao, 2021. "Risk transfer between stock and open-ended equity fund markets in China based on a multi-layer network model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    10. Cikiryel, Burak & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The Impact of Brexit on Islamic Stock Markets Employing MGARCH-DCC and Wavelet Correlation Analysis," MPRA Paper 95681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yingying HAN & Xiang ZHOU, 2017. "The Relationship between Stock and Exchange Rates for BRICS Countries Pre - and Post - Crisis: A Mixed C - VINE Copula Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 38-59, March.
    12. Ferreira, Paulo & Pereira, Éder & Silva, Marcus, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and the Brazilian stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    13. Ferreira, Paulo & Loures, Luís & Nunes, José & Brito, Paulo, 2018. "Are renewable energy stocks a possibility to diversify portfolios considering an environmentally friendly approach? The view of DCCA correlation coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 675-681.
    14. Wael Bousselmi & Patrick Sentis & Marc Willinger, 2018. "Impact of the Brexit vote announcement on long-run market performance," CEE-M Working Papers hal-01954920, CEE-M, Universtiy of Montpellier, CNRS, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro.
    15. Andrikopoulos, Athanasios & Dassiou, Xeni & Zheng, Min, 2020. "Exchange-rate exposure and Brexit: The case of FTSE, DAX and IBEX," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    16. da Silva Filho, A.M. & Zebende, G.F. & de Castro, A.P.N. & Guedes, E.F., 2021. "Statistical test for Multiple Detrended Cross-Correlation Coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 562(C).
    17. Okorie, David Iheke & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Stock markets and the COVID-19 fractal contagion effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    19. Guedes, E. & Dionísio, A. & Ferreira, P.J. & Zebende, G.F., 2017. "DCCA cross-correlation in blue-chips companies: A view of the 2008 financial crisis in the Eurozone," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 38-47.
    20. Paulo Ferreira & Marcus Fernandes da Silva & Idaraí Santos de Santana, 2019. "Detrended Correlation Coefficients Between Exchange Rate (in Dollars) and Stock Markets in the World’s Largest Economies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; Financial markets; DFA method; DCCA coefficient;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G52 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Insurance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:515:y:2019:i:c:p:151-158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.