IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jre/issued/v18n11999p175-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Availability of Credit and Loan Default: A Look at the Commercial Mortgage Supply Cycle

Author

Abstract

This study uses a structural equation approach to assess the presence of a credit supply effect in the commercial mortgage market and the lenders' ability to incorporate expectations about this effect into their lending policies. A credit supply effect is defined as the effect of mortgage supply on the level of loan defaults. The empirical analysis shows two important results. First, changes in loan defaults appear to be followed by changes in commercial mortgage supply with a lag of approximately four to five years. Second, lenders tend to behave myopically, failing to incorporate expectations about the credit supply effect into their lending policies. Additionally, a simulation suggests that adequate timing of the mortgage supply cycle is crucial in limiting the incidence of mortgage default.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis C. Mejia, 1999. "Availability of Credit and Loan Default: A Look at the Commercial Mortgage Supply Cycle," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 175-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:175-196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol18n01/v18p175.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hillier, Brian & Ibrahimo, M V, 1993. "Asymmetric Information and Models of Credit Rationing," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 271-304, October.
    2. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
    3. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1987. "The Causes and Consequences of the Dependence of Quality on Price," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    4. Kerry D. Vandell, 1992. "Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 55-88, March.
    5. Kerry D. Vandell & Walter Barnes & David Hartzell & Dennis Kraft & William Wendt, 1993. "Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 451-480, December.
    6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    7. Duane B. Graddy & Reuben Kyle & Thomas H. Strickland, 1994. "The Differential Effects Of Deregulation On Savings And Loan Associations And Banks," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 289-300, June.
    8. Ramon P. DeGennaro & Larry H.P. Lang & James B. Thomson, 1993. "Troubled Savings and Loan Institutions: Turnaround Strategies Under Insolvency," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    9. Brent W. Ambrose & John Benjamin & Peter Chinloy, 1996. "Credit Restrictions and the Market for Commercial Real Estate Loans," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-22, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ron Donohue & Patric H. Hendershott, 2004. "Fund Flows and Commercial Real Estate Investment: Evidence from the Commercial Mortgage Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(4), pages 417-442.
    2. Kamhon Kan & Sunny Kai‐Sun Kwong & Charles Ka‐Yui Leung, 2004. "The Dynamics and Volatility of Commercial and Residential Property Prices: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 95-123, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grovenstein, Robert A. & Harding, John P. & Sirmans, C.F. & Thebpanya, Sansanee & Turnbull, Geoffrey K., 2005. "Commercial mortgage underwriting: How well do lenders manage the risks?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 355-383, December.
    2. Brian Ciochetti & James Shilling, 2007. "Loss Recoveries, Realized Excess Returns, and Credit Rationing in the Commercial Mortgage Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 425-445, May.
    3. Hoon Cho & Brian Ciochetti & James Shilling, 2013. "Are Commercial Mortgage Defaults Affected by Tax Considerations?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-23, January.
    4. Ramser, Hans Jürgen & Stadler, Manfred, 1994. "Kreditmärkte und Innovationsaktivität," Discussion Papers, Series I 271, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    5. Tracey Seslen & William C. Wheaton, 2010. "Contemporaneous Loan Stress and Termination Risk in the CMBS Pool: How “Ruthless” is Default?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 225-255, June.
    6. Tracey Seslen & William C. Wheaton, 2005. "Contemporaneous Loan Stress and Termination Risk in the CMBS pool: how "Ruthless" is default?," Working Paper 8582, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    7. Greenwald, Bruce C. & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1987. "Imperfect information, credit markets and unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 444-456.
    8. Epstien, Gerald & Gintis, Herbert, 1989. "International Capital Markets and the Limits of National Economic Policy," WIDER Working Papers 295606, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Roberto Tamborini, 2010. "The Macroeconomics of Imperfect Capital Markets: Whither Saving-Investment Imbalances?," Contributions to Economics, in: Giorgio Calcagnini & Enrico Saltari (ed.), The Economics of Imperfect Markets, chapter 0, pages 137-166, Springer.
    10. Winkler, Adalbert, 2001. "On the need for an international lender of last resort: Lessons from domestic financial markets," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 28, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    11. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1988. "Money, Credit, and Business Fluctuations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(4), pages 307-322, December.
    12. Scholten, Ulrich, 1999. "Die Förderung von Wohneigentum," Beiträge zur Finanzwissenschaft, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, edition 1, volume 8, number urn:isbn:9783161472343, September.
    13. Alexander S. Kritikos & Christoph Kneiding & Claas Christian Germelmann, 2006. "Is there a Market for Micro-Lending in Industrialized Countries? - Evidence from Germany," Working Papers 0003, Gesellschaft für Arbeitsmarktaktivierung (GfA).
    14. repec:bla:scotjp:v:49:y:2002:i:2:p:162-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 1993. "The Revenge of Homo Economicus: Contested Exchange and the Revival of Political Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 83-102, Winter.
    16. Ibrahimo, M.V. & Barros, C.P., 2009. "Relevance or irrelevance of capital structure?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 473-479, March.
    17. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Sanders, Anthony B., 2006. "Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) Terminations, Regional and Property-Type Risk," Working Paper Series 2006-24, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    18. Joseph E. STIGLITZ, 2002. "Employment, social justice and societal well-being," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 141(1-2), pages 9-29, March.
    19. An, Xudong & Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A., 2011. "Asymmetric information, adverse selection, and the pricing of CMBS," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 304-325, May.
    20. Martin Petrick, 2005. "Empirical measurement of credit rationing in agriculture: a methodological survey," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(2), pages 191-203, September.
    21. Felipe Balmaceda, 2002. "Compensation Methods in a Competitive Labor Market: the Role of Asymmetric Information," Documentos de Trabajo 139, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:18:n:1:1999:p:175-196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.aresnet.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.