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Evaluating the Interest-Rate Risk of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Loans

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the interest-rate risk inherent in an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) with sporadic rate adjustments and possibly binding periodic and life-of-loan rate change constraints. Simulation analysis forecasts ARM cash flows, determines the probability that constraints will hold, and partitions the loan into fixed and variable components. Simulation parameters are then altered to measure the impact of changes in contract terms and market conditions on the interest-rate risk of a typical ARM loan. Interest-rate sensitivity is found to be significantly less than that of fixed-rate loans and remarkably insensitive to changes in loan margins or initial loan rates after the first few years of an ARM's life. Therefore, it is not surprising that lenders have used these features to lure borrowers to ARMs. Periodic rate change limits and volatility in the underlying index are the only factors that influence the interest-rate risk of an existing ARM in a substantive way.

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  • Raymond Chiang & Thomas F. Gosnell & Andrea J. Heuson, 1997. "Evaluating the Interest-Rate Risk of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Loans," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 77-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:13:n:1:1997:p:77-94
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    Cited by:

    1. Zivney, Terry L. & Luft, Carl F., 1999. "Hedging individual mortgage risk," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 101-115.
    2. Chow, Ying-Foon & Huang, Charles & Liu, Ming, 2000. "Valuation of adjustable rate mortgages with automatic stretching maturity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(11), pages 1809-1829, November.
    3. Ahmad, Ferhana & Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer, 2024. "The role of interest rate environment in mortgage pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 225-245.

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    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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