IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v232y2012i2p129-145.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Frenkel Michael

    (WHU, Otto Beisheim School of Management, Department of Economics, Burgplatz 2, 56179 Vallendar, Germany)

  • Koske Isabell

    (WHU, Otto Beisheim School of Management, Department of Economics, Burgplatz 2, 56179 Vallendar, Germany)

Abstract

This paper derives equilibrium real exchange rates for the EU member countries that joined in 2004 and in 2007. Our analysis is based on the natural real exchange rate approach and uses data for the period 1980-2007. We employ a two-step estimation strategy to deal with the limited availability and reliability of data from these countries. We first estimate the model for a panel of 17 OECD countries and then apply the estimated relationship to the new EU member countries. While the model does not support the appreciation of some of the examined currencies in 2005-2007, the development of several other currencies of the CEECs appears to be fairly in line with our NATREX estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Frenkel Michael & Koske Isabell, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:232:y:2012:i:2:p:129-145
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2012-0204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2012-0204
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2012-0204?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in transition countries: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 144-162, June.
    2. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    3. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    4. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    5. Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long–run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
    6. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. Christoph Fischer & Karlhans Sauernheimer, 2002. "A History of the D–Mark's Real External Value," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 480-498, December.
    9. Balázs ÉGERT & Kirsten LOMMATZSCH, 2010. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Acceding Countries: How Large is Our Confidence (Interval)?," EcoMod2004 330600047, EcoMod.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2003_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ms. Piritta Sorsa & Dimitar Chobanov, 2004. "Competitiveness in Bulgaria: An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2004/037, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    13. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2005. "Pitfalls in estimating equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 130-143, June.
    14. Detken, Carsten & Henry, Jérôme & Smets, Frank & Dieppe, Alistair & Marin, Carmen, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 160, European Central Bank.
    15. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion: Post-Bretton Woods real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1076-1093, October.
    16. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    17. Jan Brůha & Jiří Podpiera, 2010. "Real exchange rates in emerging economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 18(3), pages 599-628, July.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 2002/127, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    20. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. De Broeck, Mark & Slok, Torsten, 2006. "Interpreting real exchange rate movements in transition countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 368-383, March.
    22. Charalambos Pattichis & Marios Maratheftis & Stavros Zenios, 2007. "Is the Cyprus Pound Real Effective Exchange Rate Misaligned? A BEER Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 133-154.
    23. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies: Methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 499-517, September.
    24. Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Tober, Silke, 2004. "What is behind the real appreciation of the accession countries' currencies?: An investigation of the PPI-based real exchange rate," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 383-403, December.
    25. Frait , Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2001. "REAL Exchange rate trends in transitional countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 596, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    26. John F. Henry, 1984. "On Equilibrium," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 6(2), pages 214-229, January.
    27. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Estimating the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Central and Eastern European Countries; The EMU Enlargement Perspective," Working Papers 2003-05, CEPII research center.
    29. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    30. Gutierrez, Luciano, 2003. "On the power of panel cointegration tests: a Monte Carlo comparison," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 105-111, July.
    31. Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "The Transition Economies: A NATREX Evaluation of Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 1449, CESifo.
    32. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    33. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    34. Jörg Rahn, 2003. "Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the EU Accession Countries against the Euro," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20306, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    35. International Monetary Fund, 2003. "Competitiveness in the Baltics in the Run-Up to EU Accession," IMF Staff Country Reports 2003/114, International Monetary Fund.
    36. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    38. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    40. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kiptui, Moses C. & Ndirangu, Lydia, 2015. "Determinants of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and its Misalignment in Kenya: A Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Approach," MPRA Paper 70542, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2016.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    2. Egert, Balazs & Halpern, Laszlo, 2006. "Equilibrium exchange rates in Central and Eastern Europe: A meta-regression analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1359-1374, May.
    3. Comunale, Mariarosaria, 2018. "Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 414-436.
    4. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2006. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for transition economies: Methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 499-517, September.
    5. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 353, European Central Bank.
    6. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    9. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:106:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Candelon, Bertrand & Kool, Clemens & Raabe, Katharina & van Veen, Tom, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate determinants: Evidence from eight new EU member states, 1993-2003," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 87-107, March.
    11. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    12. Eberechukwu UNEZE, 2011. "Foreign Aid And The Real Exchange Rate In The West African Economic And Monetary Union (Waemu)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(2).
    13. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2010. "Challenging the popular wisdom. New estimates of the unobserved economy," Working Papers 184, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
    15. Christophe RAULT & Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE & Thouraya HADJ AMOR, 2009. "International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp970, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    16. Eberechukwu UNEZE, 2011. "Foreign Aid And The Real Exchange Rate In The West African Economic And Monetary Union (Waemu)," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(1).
    17. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    18. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    19. Hosan, Shahadat & Rahman, Md Matiar & Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2023. "Energy subsidies and energy technology innovation: Policies for polygeneration systems diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    20. BADALYAN, Gohar & HERZFELD, Thomas & RAJCANIOVA, Miroslava, 2014. "Transport Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach For Armenia, Georgia And Turkey," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, October.
    21. Karmaker, Shamal Chandra & Hosan, Shahadat & Chapman, Andrew J. & Saha, Bidyut Baran, 2021. "The role of environmental taxes on technological innovation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    22. Hamit-Haggar, Mahamat, 2012. "Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 358-364.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:232:y:2012:i:2:p:129-145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.