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The Transition Economies: A NATREX Evaluation of Research

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  • Jerome L. Stein

Abstract

This paper applies the NATREX model of equilibrium exchange rates to evaluate several key studies of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) in general, with particular emphasis upon the Czech Republic and Hungary and with references to Poland and Bulgaria. On the basis of the NATREX model, we evaluate several key studies to answer the questions: How can the trends in the real exchange rates of the transition economies be explained? What are sustainable trends in their real exchange rates? To what extent were the real exchange rates misaligned? What are sustainable/equilibrium current account deficits and net investment positions in the medium and in the long-run? What are the policy implications for the transition economies of the NATREX analysis?

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "The Transition Economies: A NATREX Evaluation of Research," CESifo Working Paper Series 1449, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1449
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1449.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    3. Vaclav Klaus, 2004. "Implications of this year's EU Enlargement: A preliminary Analysis," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 5(03), pages 61-63, September.
    4. Ms. Piritta Sorsa & Dimitar Chobanov, 2004. "Competitiveness in Bulgaria: An Assessment of the Real Effective Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 2004/037, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frenkel Michael & Koske Isabell, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, April.
    2. Wright, Nicholas Anthony, 2013. "Examining measures of the equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Macroeconomic Balance and the Natural Real Exchange Rate Approaches," MPRA Paper 61170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nadezhda Ivanova, 2007. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Russia: Trade-Balance Approach," Working Papers w0102, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).

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    Keywords

    transition economies; NATREX model; equilibrium real exchange rates; current account deficits; euro area;
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