IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jfr/ijfr11/v5y2014i1p81-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices: Some Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Lakshmi Kalyanaraman
  • Basmah Al Tuwajri

Abstract

This paper examines if there exists a long run relationship among five macroeconomic variables, consumer price index, industrial output, money supply, exchange rate, oil prices along with the global stock prices proxy Standard and Poor 500 index and Saudi all share stock index. Time series analysis is applied using monthly data from January 1994 to June 2013. Application of Johansen cointegration test finds the existence of a long run relationship among the chosen variables. All macroeconomic variables are found to impact stock prices. Standard and Poor 500 index does not affect Saudi stock prices. Vector error correction model shows the presence of long run causality from the explanatory variables to the stock prices. Short run causality test finds a two-way causality between stock prices and oil prices. Impulse response function shows that industrial production shocks pushes up stock prices while consumer price index shocks pulls it down. Variance decompositions show that historical stock prices are the major driver of Saudi stock prices. This implies that Saudi stock market follows weak form of market efficiency. The results of this paper have important implications for the investors in Saudi stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Lakshmi Kalyanaraman & Basmah Al Tuwajri, 2014. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices: Some Empirical Evidence from Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(1), pages 81-92, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:5:y:2014:i:1:p:81-92
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/3967/2338
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/3967
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arouri Mohamed el hédi & Fouquau Julien, 2009. "On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in gcc countries: linear and nonlinear analyses," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 795-804.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, April.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    5. Gjerde, Oystein & Saettem, Frode, 1999. "Causal relations among stock returns and macroeconomic variables in a small, open economy," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-74, January.
    6. David G. McMillan, 2010. "Present Value Model, Bubbles and Returns Predictability: Sector-Level Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5-6), pages 668-686.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    8. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    9. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    12. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:721-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Solnik, Bruno, 1983. "International Arbitrage Pricing Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 449-457, May.
    14. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    15. Mandelker, Gershon & Tandon, Kishore, 1985. "Common stock returns, real activity, money, and inflation: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 267-286, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    2. Sirine Ben Yaâla & Jamel Henchiri, 2016. "Impact of Macroeconomic and Demographic Variables on the Stock Market: Evidence from Tunisian Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(8), pages 194-194, August.
    3. Isma Zaighum, 2014. "Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Non-financial firms Stock Returns: Evidence from Sectorial Study of KSE-100 Index," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 35-48, March.
    4. Durga Prasad Samontaray & Sultan Nugali & Bokkasam Sasidhar, 2014. "A Study of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market: Saudi Perspective," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 120-127, October.
    5. Ruqayya Aljifri, 2020. "The Macroeconomy, Oil and the Stock Market: A Multiple Equation Time Series Analysis of Saudi Arabia," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-27, Department of Economics, University of Reading.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ditimi Amassoma & O. Adeleke, 2018. "Testing for the Causality between Interest Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 109-124.
    2. Md. Abu HASAN, 2017. "Efficiency and Volatility of the Stock Market in Bangladesh: A Macroeconometric Analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 239-249, June.
    3. R. Gopinathan & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2019. "Stock market and macroeconomic variables: new evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Mirza Muhammad Naseer & Muhammad Asif Khan & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2021. "Firm, Industry and Macroeconomics Dynamics of Stock Returns: A Case of Pakistan Non-Financial Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Roland Füss & Denis Schweizer, 2012. "Short and long-term interactions between venture capital returns and the macroeconomy: evidence for the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 391-410, April.
    6. Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 363-372.
    7. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Animesh Bhattacharjee & Joy Das, 2021. "Investigating the Long-run and the Short-run Relationship Between Domestic Macroeconomic Forces and Indian Equity Market: Evidence Based on ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Paradigm, , vol. 25(1), pages 61-76, June.
    10. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    11. Siew-Pong Cheah & Thian-Hee Yiew & Cheong-Fatt Ng, 2017. "A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(1), pages 336-346.
    12. Endang Mahpudin, 2020. "The Effect of Macroeconomics on Stock Price Index in the Republic of China," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 228-236.
    13. Onur Şeyranlıoğlu & Çağlar Sözen & Ferhat İspiroğlu, 2024. "Interaction Between Stock Exchange And Interest Rate in Turkey: A Hidden Cointegration and Asymmetric Causality Analysis," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, vol. 0(40), pages 22-34, June.
    14. Subrata ROY, 2020. "Foreign trade policy and economic growth: Indian evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 107-126, Autumn.
    15. Tang, Xiaobo & Yao, Xingyuan, 2018. "Do financial structures affect exchange rate and stock price interaction? Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 64-76.
    16. Abugri, Benjamin A., 2008. "Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 396-410.
    17. Richard A. Ajayi & Mbodja Mougouė, 1996. "On The Dynamic Relation Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 193-207, June.
    18. Hassan, Gazi & Hisham, Al refai, 2010. "Can Macroeconomic Factors Explain Equity Returns in the Long Run? The Case of Jordan," MPRA Paper 22713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2022. "Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 137-162, May.
    20. Neha GUPTA & Arya KUMAR, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and market expectations: Indian Stock Market," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 161-178, Autumn.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:5:y:2014:i:1:p:81-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gina Perry (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://ijfr.sciedupress.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.