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L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement

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  • Mounir MARZOUGUI

Abstract

Dans ce papier, nous analysons les effets de l’instabilité politique sur La volatilité d’inflation dans les pays en développement. A cette fin, nous examinons en premier lieu le caractère multidimensionnel de l'instabilité politique dans les pays en développement en utilisant 26 indicateurs de l’instabilité politique dans une analyse en composantes principales (ACP). Nous sommes arrivés à détecter quatre dimensions d’instabilité politique, à savoir : le niveau de la démocratie, la violence et la protestation à motivation politique, les effets des pays voisins, et l’instabilité au niveau du gouvernement. En deuxième lieu, Nous examinons l’impact de l’instabilité politique à travers ces quatre dimensions sur les niveaux d’inflation à l’aide d’une méthode de panel dynamique (GMM). Nous avons constaté que seule les dimensions, l’instabilité du régime politique et le niveau de protestation et violence politique ont un effet significatif et positif sur les niveaux d’inflation dans les pays en développement.

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  • Mounir MARZOUGUI, 2016. "L’impact de l’instabilité politique sur la volatilité de l’inflation dans les pays en développement," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(1), June.
    • Handle: RePEc:jaf:journl:v:7:y:2016:i:1:n:45
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    JEL classification:

    • P44 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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