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A bounds analysis of school completion rates in Australia

Author

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  • Tue Gørgens

    (Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia)

  • Chris Ryan

    (Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia)

Abstract

Official estimates of school completion rates in Australia increased in the 1980s, peaked in 1992, and fell immediately thereafter before stabilizing. The official estimates were a specific focus of Australian education policy. The decline caused concern at the time. We use data from the Australian Youth Survey (AYS) to gain insight into the behavior of the official estimates. The AYS suffers from nonrepresentativeness, attrition and nonresponse, which means that parameters of interest are not identified. Our bounds analysis is suggestive that school completion was overstated in the official estimates at their peak. Our analysis points to repetition as a key factor in inflating the official estimates. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Tue Gørgens & Chris Ryan, 2008. "A bounds analysis of school completion rates in Australia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 287-304.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:3:p:287-304
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.975
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Horowitz, Joel L. & Manski, Charles F., 1998. "Censoring of outcomes and regressors due to survey nonresponse: Identification and estimation using weights and imputations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 37-58, May.
    2. Guido W. Imbens & Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Confidence Intervals for Partially Identified Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(6), pages 1845-1857, November.
    3. Charles F. Manski, 1989. "Anatomy of the Selection Problem," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(3), pages 343-360.
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