IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v19y2004i3p355-373.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick J. Coe

    (Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Canada)

  • James M. Nason

    (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, USA)

Abstract

A prominent test of long-run monetary neutrality (LRMN) involves regressing long-horizon output growth on long-horizon money growth. We obtain limited support for LRMN with this test in long-annual Australian, Canadian, UK and US samples. Although empirical confidence intervals yield evidence in favour of LRMN, Monte Carlo experiments reveal the power of this test is near its size. Thus, this test is unlikely to detect important deviations from LRMN. These problems arise because the long-horizon regression test of LRMN relies on estimates of the covariance of long-horizon output growth and long-horizon money growth. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:3:p:355-373
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.749
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.749
    File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2004-v19.3/
    File Function: Supporting data files and programs
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/jae.749?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    2. Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
    3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1989. "Power in Econometric Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1059-1090, September.
    4. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-415, June.
    5. Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
    6. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1997. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 756-759, September.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1996. "Nobel Lecture: Monetary Neutrality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(4), pages 661-682, August.
    9. Coe, Patrick J. & Nason, James M., 2003. "The long-horizon regression approach to monetary neutrality: how should the evidence be interpreted?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 351-356, March.
    10. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Testing long-run neutrality," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 69-101.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    12. Ben Bemanke & Harold James, 1991. "The Gold Standard, Deflation, and Financial Crisis in the Great Depression: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters, in: Financial Markets and Financial Crises, pages 33-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Olekalns, Nilss, 1996. "Some further evidence on the long-run neutrality of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 393-398, March.
    14. Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. "Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-661, June.
    15. Boschen, John F. & Mills, Leonard O., 1995. "Tests of long-run neutrality using permanent monetary and real shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, February.
    16. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
    17. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    18. Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
    19. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    20. Serletis, Apostolos & Krause, David, 1996. "Empirical evidence on the long-run neutrality hypothesis using low-frequency international data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 323-327, March.
    21. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1, December.
    22. James B. Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Nov), pages 57-77.
    23. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joakim Westerlund & Mauro Costantini, 2009. "Panel cointegration and the neutrality of money," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-26, February.
    2. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2004.
    3. Becker, Sascha O. & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2006. "Intra- and international risk-sharing in the short run and the long run," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 777-806, April.
    4. Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 2004. "Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1961-1985, August.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:64:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lastrapes, William D. & Potts, Todd B., 2006. "Durable goods and the forward-looking theory of consumption: Estimates implied by the dynamic effects of money," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1430, August.
    7. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18.
    8. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Wallace, Frederick H. & Shelley, Gary L., 2006. "An alternative test of purchasing power parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 177-183, August.
    10. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    11. Noriega Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel, 2010. "Spurious Long-Horizon Regression in Econometrics," Working Papers 2010-06, Banco de México.
    12. Jonathan B. Hill, 2007. "Efficient tests of long-run causation in trivariate VAR processes with a rolling window study of the money-income relationship," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 747-765.
    13. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
    14. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long‐Horizon Regression Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 63-88, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Noriega, Antonio E., 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and the unit-root hypothesis: further international evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 179-197, August.
    2. Coe, Patrick J. & Nason, James M., 2003. "The long-horizon regression approach to monetary neutrality: how should the evidence be interpreted?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 351-356, March.
    3. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
    4. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November.
    5. Serletis, Apostolos & Gogas, Periklis, 2004. "Long-horizon regression tests of the theory of purchasing power parity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1961-1985, August.
    6. Yunus Aksoy & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma, 2004. "Interest Rates and Output in the Long Run," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    7. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    8. Jin Lee, 2012. "Nonparametric Testing for Long-Run Neutrality with Applications to US Money and Output Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 183-202, August.
    9. Lastrapes, William D. & Potts, Todd B., 2006. "Durable goods and the forward-looking theory of consumption: Estimates implied by the dynamic effects of money," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1409-1430, August.
    10. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Evidence of the Long-Run Neutrality of Money: The Case of South Korea and Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(64), pages 1-18.
    11. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," Finance 0409032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2008. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1577-1605, July.
    13. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Long Run Effects of Money on Real Consumption and Investment in the U.S," Macroeconomics 0404007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2004.
    14. Gary L. Shelley & Frederick H. Wallace, 2004. "Testing for Long Run Neutrality of Money in Mexico," Macroeconomics 0402003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel & Noriega, Antonio E., 2015. "Long-run monetary neutrality under stochastic and deterministic trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-382.
    16. Frederick H. Wallace & Gary L. Shelley, 2004. "Long Run Neutrality and Superneutrality of Money: Aggregate and Sectoral Tests for Nicaragua," Macroeconomics 0402004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2008. "Interpreting long-horizon estimates in predictive regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 104-117, June.
    18. SangKun Bae & Mark J. Jensen, 1998. "Long-Run Neutrality in a Long-Memory Model," Macroeconomics 9809006, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Apr 1999.
    19. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Inference in Long-Horizon Regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 853, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:19:y:2004:i:3:p:355-373. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.