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Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns

Author

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  • Yi-Ting Chen

    (Institute for Social Sciences and Philosophy, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan)

  • Chung-Ming Kuan

    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan)

Abstract

In this paper we suggest using a modified version of the time reversibility (TR) test of Chen, Chou and Kuan (2000) as a complementary diagnostic test for time series models. The modified CCK test is easy to compute and requires weaker moment conditions than existing tests. Our simulations demonstrate that this test is powerful against asymmetry in volatility but the BDS test is not. In the empirical study of US stock index returns, we first find that these returns are all time irreversible. Applying the GARCH and EGARCH models to these returns, we also find that the Q and BDS tests always accept the null hypothesis and cannot distinguish between these models. By contrast, the modified CCK test accepts only the EGARCH model with an order that can accommodate the underlying asymmetry in volatility. Our results suggest that the detected time irreversibility in these return series may be attributed to volatility asymmetry and that such asymmetry may be captured using a proper EGARCH model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi-Ting Chen & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2002. "Time irreversibility and EGARCH effects in US stock index returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 565-578.
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:17:y:2002:i:5:p:565-578
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.692
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    2. Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-608, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2004. "Advancing the iid Test Based on Integration across the Correlation Integral: Ranges, Competition, and Power," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp235, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    4. Beare, Brendan K. & Seo, Juwon, 2014. "Time Irreversible Copula-Based Markov Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(5), pages 923-960, October.
    5. Yi-Ting Chen, 2008. "A unified approach to standardized-residuals-based correlation tests for GARCH-type models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 111-133.
    6. Kirt Butler & Katsushi Okada, 2007. "Bivariate and higher-order terms in models of international equity returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 725-737.
    7. Esparcia, Carlos & Jareño, Francisco & Umar, Zaghum, 2022. "Revisiting the safe haven role of Gold across time and frequencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
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    9. Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Contreras, Dulce, 2003. "Tests for time reversibility: a complementarity analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 187-195, November.
    10. Kirt Butler & Katsushi Okada, 2009. "The relative contribution of conditional mean and volatility in bivariate returns to international stock market indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15.
    11. Hachmi Ben Ameur & Waël Louhichi, 2022. "The Brexit impact on European market co-movements," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1387-1403, June.
    12. Ben Ameur, H. & Prigent, J.L., 2014. "Portfolio insurance: Gap risk under conditional multiples," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(1), pages 238-253.
    13. Kirt C. Butler & Katsushi Okada, 2008. "Higher-Order Terms in Bivariate Returns to International Stock Market Indices," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 127-155, March-Jun.
    14. Ben Ameur, Hachmi & Le Fur, Eric, 2020. "Volatility transmission to the fine wine market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 307-316.
    15. C. W. Granger & E. Maasoumi & J. Racine, 2004. "A Dependence Metric for Possibly Nonlinear Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 649-669, September.
    16. Shibin Zhang, 2023. "A copula spectral test for pairwise time reversibility," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 75(5), pages 705-729, October.
    17. Evzen Kocenda & Lubos Briatka, 2005. "Optimal Range for the iid Test Based on Integration Across the Correlation Integral," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 265-296.

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