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Estimación de la demanda de uso de autos particulares en la zona metropolitana del valle de México: un análisis Tobit

Author

Listed:
  • Santos-Pérez, Rubén.

    (Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional)

Abstract

En este trabajo se analiza el efecto del ingreso de los hogares, así como de variables socioeconómicas y geográficas sobre la demanda de uso de autos particulares en la Zona Metropolitana del Valle de México. Se emplea un modelo Tobit a fin de captar los efectos de los hogares que demandan el uso de autos y de aquellos hogares que podrían ingresar al mercado. Los resultados muestran que la variable más importante en la determinación del uso de vehículos por parte de los hogares es el ingreso. Además, nuestro estudio muestra que variables como la edad, número de personas ocupadas y distancia, afectan significativamente a la demanda de uso de autos y que el efecto más importante sobre el uso de los mismos se debe a los nuevos consumidores que ingresan al mercado./ In this work the effect of household income is analyzed as well as socioeconomic and geographical demand for use of private cars in the MetropolitanZone of the Mexican Valley variables. A Tobit model to capture the effects of households that demand the use of cars and homes that could be used to enter the market. The results show that the most important in determining the variable vehicle use by households is income. In addition, our study shows that variables such as age, number of employed people and distance, significantly affect the demand for car use and that the most important on the use of the same is due to the new consumers entering the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Santos-Pérez, Rubén., 2015. "Estimación de la demanda de uso de autos particulares en la zona metropolitana del valle de México: un análisis Tobit," Panorama Económico, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, vol. 0(21), pages 85-120, segundo s.
    • Handle: RePEc:ipn:panora:v:xi:y:2015:i:21:p:85-120
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Train, 1980. "A Structured Logit Model of Auto Ownership and Mode Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(2), pages 357-370.
    2. Thobani, Mateen, 1984. "A nested logit model of travel mode to work and auto ownership," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-301, May.
    3. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1973. "Regression Analysis when the Dependent Variable is Truncated Normal," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 997-1016, November.
    4. Pedro A. Villezca Becerra & Jorge O. Moreno Treviño, 2000. "Análisis del consumo de cerveza en el área metropolitana de Monterrey: Un modelo de respuesta censurada," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(2), pages 249-280.
    5. Nolan, Anne, 2002. "The Determinants of Urban Households' Transport Decisions: A Microeconometric Study using Irish Data," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 150, Royal Economic Society.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ingreso de hogares; modelo tobit; Valle de México; autos./ household income; tobit; Valley of Mexico; cars.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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